College Football Preview: Big 12

The Big 12 of 2009 will look similar to the Big 12 of 2008. They have a bevy of good quarterbacks, they have three teams that will look to go undefeated…until they wind up playing each other, that is, they are once again dominated by the South, and they’ll have a controversy at the end of the year. Business as usual. Instead of Texas Tech causing problems for bad boys Oklahoma and Texas, it’ll be Oklahoma State. Texas will beat Oklahoma in Dallas, lose to Oklahoma State on the road, and then watch Oklahoma beat Oklahoma State in the finale to cause a three-way tie at the top of the South. Sound familiar? Thought so. Strap in, people, the Big 12 is gonna get rowdy for three months once again.

Predicted Order of Finish:
North Division:
1.) Kansas – After winning the Orange Bowl in 2007, the Jayhawks took a minor step back last year, going 8-5 and winning the Insight Bowl. However, the fall wasn’t as bad as it looks on the surface, because 3 of their losses were to Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech. Not bad. Regardless, Kansas had a lot more fun winning the North in 2007 and will look to do so again this year behind the arm of QB Todd Reesing. Reesing, despite his diminutive stature, is a stud. 3,888 yards and 32 TDs passing last year hardly tell the story. His decision-making and pocket presence are second-to-none in the conference, and he’s the locomotive that makes the prolific Jayhawk offense (8^th in passing nationally last season) go. Reesing will be throwing to a gifted corps of receivers led by Dezmon Briscoe, a junior who caught 15 TDs last season. Flanking Briscoe will be WR/TE/backup QB Kerry Meier, a physical receiver who’s very dependable in clutch situations, and WR Jonathan Wilson. RB Jake Sharp, who is second to Stanford’s Toby Gerhart in the race for ‘best white running back in America’, returns after rushing for 860 yards last season. The offensive lines needs to replace 3 starters off last year’s team, so their growth will be crucial in deciding just how good the Kansas offense can be. On defense, the Jayhawks were not good last year, ranking 89^th nationally in total defense. Generating a pass rush has been an issue, but Kansas is hoping juco transfer Quintin Woods will help form a productive DE duo with returning sack leader Jake Laptad. The linebackers are a new group with very little experience. There is some talent on hand, namely LB Justin Springer, but the group must be a pleasant surprise for the Jayhawks to improve defensively. The secondary is experienced, they’re just not very good. Ranking 114^th in pass defense in 2008, the unit needs a serious upgrade to become even respectable. SS Darrell Stuckey, an All-Big 12 selection last year, is the leader of a group that also includes athletic CB Justin Thornton. Kansas’ schedule sets up very nicely. The first 5 games should all be wins, and Nebraska comes to Lawrence. Road games at Texas Tech and Texas will probably be losses, but the home game against Oklahoma could be a statement game one week after the Red River Rivalry.

2.) Missouri – Chase Daniel? Gone. Chase Coffman? Gone. Jeremy Maclin? Gone. Offensive coordinator Dave Christensen? Gone. That’s the story in Columbia this year, where the Tigers are going through a semi-rebuilding mode. The good news is that coach Gary Pinkel has recruited well enough the past couple years that talented players are waiting in the wings. The biggest coup of the Pinkel recruits may have been QB Blaine Gabbert, a 6’5”, 240-lb. horse with a rocket arm. What Chase Daniel lacked in physical ability, Gabbert has. If he’s able to provide even a fraction of the mental acuity that Daniel possessed, look for the Missouri offense to take off. RB Derrick Washington was often overlooked because of the insane passing attack of the past couple years, but should get a heavy load this year. He may not eclipse the 19 TDs he amassed last year, but his rushing total should go up from 2008’s 1,036 yards. Despite the loss of Maclin and Coffman, good targets remain. WRs Danario Alexander and Jared Perry both have 1,000 yards in their careers and should provide Gabbert with plenty of production. Three offensive linemen return, which will help keep Gabbert upright and Washington running forward. Defensively, the Tigers only return 4 starters, but the 2008 unit was garbage, so that may be a good thing. LB Sean Weatherspoon is terrific, probably one of the top 5 linebackers in the country. Alongside him is LB Luke Lambert, a steady playmaker. The defensive line is a work-in-progress, but could surprise. DEs Aldon Smith and Brian Coulter have had limited time in Columbia but look primed to make up for it this fall. The secondary is full of Big 12 name of the year nominees, like FS Kenji Jackson, CB Munir Prince, and SS Zaviar Gooden, but not a lot of productivity. This unit can’t get much worse (117^th in pass defense in 2008), but must get much better if the Tigers are to challenge in the North. The schedule for Missouri is so-so. Road games at Colorado and Kansas State shouldn’t be too bad, but the road date at Oklahoma State is no fun. Baylor, Nebraska, and Iowa State travel to Columbia, but so does Texas.

3.) Nebraska – Call me Danny Downer, but I don’t really see what the fuss is over the Huskers. Nebraska is getting a lot of love from a lot of reputable people, and I’m not sure why. Yes, they won 9 games last year, but here are the teams they beat: Western Michigan, San Jose State, New Mexico State, Iowa State, Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Colorado, and Clemson. They beat no one good. No shame in losing to Virginia Tech, Missouri, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma; but beating one of them would have been nice. Any way you slice it, Nebraska is good enough to beat the bad teams and bad enough to lose to the good teams; expect more of the same in 2009. QB Zac Lee has thrown only two passes in his career, completing one for 5 yards. He’ll start the season behind an experienced offensive line that will allow him time to make decisions. His wide receivers are all new and his running back situation is murky at best, so he won’t get a lot of help at the skill positions. RB Roy Helu, Jr. will be solid as the lead ball carrier, but won’t break many runs. Defensively, the Huskers hope to make up for their offense’s weak punch. Big 12 name of the year nominee Ndamukong Suh is about as good as it gets in America at nose tackle. He will stuff the run by himself all year, allowing DE Pierre Allen to make plays. The linebackers are all new, but there is some talent in place. Look for LBs Blake Lawrence and Sean Fisher to surprise. The secondary is experienced, and S Larry Asante should finally make the leap from all-conference honorable mention to full-fledged member. Nebraska’s schedule is the opposite of fun. It wouldn’t be Nebraska if they didn’t have a bunch of cupcakes to start off with, but then road games at Missouri, Baylor, Kansas, and Colorado will let everyone know if the Cornhuskers are worth the preseason hype. Methinks no.

4.) Colorado – This is a make-or-break year for coach Dan Hawkins. An Independence Bowl appearance in 2007 was followed up by a 5-7 campaign last year. Pulling the trigger for his offense will be his son, Cody, now an experienced junior. Hawkins has shown the ability to make some big plays, but constantly struggles to put together sustained drives. Benefitting Hawkins will be a one-two running attack of Rodney (Rod) Stewart and Darrell Scott, both sophomores. Scott was a big-time recruit last year but struggled with injuries, while Stewart amassed 622 rushing yards in limited time. Both should improve this year and give the Buffaloes a terrific ground game. The wide receiving corps is thin, but starters Scotty McKnight and Markques Simas should be reliable. On defense, only 3 starters return from a unit that was mediocre in 2008. The line is a mish-mash of freshman and former backups, so it will be interesting to see if the talented newcomes, like DE Nick Kasa, can overtake the more experienced players on the depth chart. Depth at the linebacker position is a huge plus for Colorado. LBs Jeff Smart, Shaun Mohler, and Marcus Burton should all generate plenty of tackles. The secondary is inexperienced, but the CB tandem of Jimmy Smith and Ben Burney should be very good. The defense as a whole has room to improve, but should surprise people. The schedule sets up very well for Colorado. Yes, they must go to Texas, but they weren’t going to beat the Longhorns anyway. Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska must all come to Boulder; and road games at Kansas State and Iowa State are very winnable. The Buffs are a sleeper team in the Big 12.

5.) Iowa State – Kind of a weird situation in Ames. Former head coach Gene Chizik, who wasn’t good, left to become coach at Auburn. Responding in kind, Iowa State hired away Auburn’s defensive coordinator, Paul Rhoads, to be their head coach. Rhoads’ first smart move (of, hopefully, many for Cyclones fans) was hiring former Rice offensive coordinator Tom Herman, who masterminded one of the most prolific offensive attacks in recent years. If his offense transfers quickly, the Cyclones are going to irritate Big 12 opponents all season long. At the helm is QB Austen Arnaud, a junior who has shown some big play ability over the past couple years. If he gets in synch with WRs Sedrick Johnson and Darius Darks early, points could be a non-issue for Iowa State. Complementing the attack will be RB Alexander Robinson, who rushed for 703 yards in limited time last season. The offense has talent, but must jell quickly under Herman. Defensively, Rhoads needs to perform a minor miracle. The Cyclones were bad in pretty much every meaningful category in 2008. Returning to the defensive line are Nate Frere at DT and Rashawn Parker at DE. Neither is a standout, but must be steady if the line is to improve. At linebacker, Fred Garrin and Jesse Smith are a nice tandem that could produce a lot of tackles. In the secondary, CB Leonard Johnson should have a breakout year, but that’s about the extent of the corners. At safety, James Smith and David Sims have some ability, but need to be consistent to make up for the shortcomings of the other players in the unit. Iowa State’s schedule features home games against Baylor, Kansas State (in K.C.), and Colorado. Two of those games must be wins if the Cyclones are to go bowling come December.

6.) Kansas State – Bill Snyder is back. After raising the program from the ashes in the 1990s, Snyder got bored with retirement and came back to fix a program that is in turmoil. Yes, the Wildcats won 5 games last year, but the off-the-field issues, the odd mix of jucos and recruits, and getting thrashed by any team with a pulse are things that cannot be solved overnight. Snyder is 69 years old, so it’ll be interesting to see how long he attempts to rebuild the once-proud program. With Josh Freeman off to the NFL, QB Carson Coffman will attempt to keep the Wildcats productive on offense. Coffman has very little experience, so there could be some growing pains for the new triggerman. At running back, senior Keith Valentine will start the season as the starter, but could be replaced by any number of candidates, since no one has distinguished himself as the go-to back. WRs Brandon Banks and Lamark Brown are two explosive wideouts that cause problems for opposing defense. Banks, 5’7” and 150 lbs., can take it to the house in the blink of an eye and possesses terrific hands. On defense, the Wildcats were terrible in 2008, but return 7 starters, so the hope is that they’ll improve with experience. DE Brandon Harold is the leading returning sack man and will be helped on the other side by returning starter Eric Childs. Big 12 name of the year nominee Ulla Pomele mans one side of the linebacking corps while Alex Hrebec should be steady at the other. In the secondary, Kansas State has experience but not much production. CBs Josh Moore and Blair Irvin shows flashes, but must be more consistent. Safeties Tysyn Hartman and Chris Carney are returning starters as well. Kansas State plays a neutral-site game against Iowa State and hosts Texas A&M. Look for those two games to be the only opportunities for the Wildcats to nab a conference win.

South Division:
1.) Oklahoma – When you return the Heisman Trophy winner from last season and a defense that is predicted to be tops in the conference, you're in pretty good shape. Welcome to the life of the Oklahoma Sooners, where QB Sam Bradford returns after throwing for 4,720 yards last season, and the defense returns 8 starters from a much-maligned unit last year. Bradford will need to be sharp from jump street, though, because only 1 starter returns to the offensive line and he has to break in some new receivers. This is Oklahoma, so the talent is there, it just may take a game or two to get going. The non-Bradford strength of the offense is the running game, led by RBs DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown (the one that doesn't hit women). These two guys could easily gain 1,000 yards apiece...provided they get enough carries. Look for WR Ryan Broyles to break out now that Juaquin Iglesias and Manny Johnson have graduated, while TE Jermaine Gresham becomes the featured pass-catcher. On defense, DTs Gerald McCoy and DeMarcus Granger are a two-man wrecking crew. Behind them, LBs Ryan Reynolds and Travis Lewis will battle all year long for the team lead in tackles. The secondary was problematic last year, but should be better this season with a more experienced group. The schedule is fun with a trip to Miami in the non-conference, Texas in Dallas, and Oklahoma State visiting Norman. Sooners, there's your season. Do with it what you will. And be careful going to Kansas.

2.) Texas –Arguably the second-best team in America last year, the Longhorns look to finish the deal this season by making their 2nd appearance in the BCS Championship Game. QB Colt McCoy heads the attack, leading the team in both passing (3,859) and rushing (561) last season. If you've seen him play, you know how magical he can be at times making plays, and this year should be no different. His favorite target, WR Jordan Shipley, was granted a sixth year of eligibility by the NCAA and is back for 2009. The running back situation is a bit unsettled, but it was last year as well and that turned out ok. RB Vondrell McGee will start the season with the bulk of the carries, but will have to produce to keep it that way. On defense, DE Sergio Kindle will attempt to make the transition from linebacker and lead the nation in sacks -- his stated goal for 2009. If Kindle is able to replace the production of the departed Brian Orakpo, the 'Horns should pick up right where they left off last season. LBs Roddrick Muckelroy and Jared Norton will make plays all over the field. The secondary is in good hands with CB Chykie Brown and safeties Blake Gideon and Earl Thomas handling opposing receivers. The schedule faces a potential landmine with the trip to Oklahoma State. After narrowly defeating the Cowboys in Austin last year, Texas will have their hands full on the road. As always, the Oklahoma game will also determine their conference standing.

3.) Oklahoma State – I really wanted to put the Cowboys first in the conference. I did. But I just don't see them going to Norman and winning the last game of the season. I do, however, see them defeating Texas in Stillwater. QB Zac Robinson is the do-everything guy for the 'Pokes offense. He runs, he throws, he makes plays out of nothing; he does it all. Helping him out is WR Dez Bryant, who went from question mark to exclamation point in the course of one season. People weren't sure what to expect of him as a full-time go-to target for Robinson last season...until he proceeded to sets records all over the place. RB Kendall Hunter is sometimes the forgotten man in the offense, but if defenses don't pay attention, he'll go for 200 yards and 2 TDs on them. A deep, experienced line is led by OT Russell Okung, who'll be a millionaire once the season is over. Defensively, the Cowboys need some work. However, new coordinator Bill Young, who led Kansas' defensive renaissance in 2007, steps in to make the unit better. Expect him to bring more pressure to the quarterback, mainly with Big 12 name of the year nominee Ugo Chinasa, a speedy defensive end. LB Andre Sexton is the leader of an experienced group that should provide ample support to the attacking defensive line. In the secondary, CB Perrish Cox is an all-conference candidate who will blanket the opposing team's best receivers. Safeties Victor Johnson and Lucien Antoine are new, but have the ability to improve upon last year's duo's performance. Oklahoma State's schedule sets up perfectly. If ever the Cowboys are going to make the leap to greatness, this is the year. Conference road games against Baylor, Iowa State, and Texas A&M mean that the only thing standing between the 'Pokes and a Big 12 championship are taking care of business at home...and a finale at Oklahoma. OSU, the floor is yours.

4.) Texas Tech – Coach Mike Leach has a task on his hands this season. Gone are Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree, the record-setting duo of last year. In their places step QB Taylor Potts and WR Detron Lewis, respectively. Potts will be the next Red Raider quarterback to throw for a million yards, but it may take the offense a few games to get roaring like we're used to. In addition to Lewis, expect WRs Tramain Swindall and Lyle Leong to put up big numbers as well. RB Baron Batch is a productive back who should get more carries than the traditional Texas Tech running back...which still isn't very many. On defense, the Red Raiders look to continue the (relative) productivity that allowed them to have a historic season in 2008. The unit returns 7 total starters, most of them on the front seven. If DE Rajon Henley terrorizes opposing QBs, the defense could really take off. LBs Bront Bird, Brian Duncan, and Marlon Williams are all returning starters and will make plays consistently, but none are game-changers. The secondary is relatively inexperienced, but CB Jamar Wall should provide steady play and leadership. The schedule does Texas Tech no favors. Back-to-back road games against Texas and Houston (in the most fun game of the year) will be no fun, and a later date at Oklahoma State looms. The Red Raiders will regress a bit, but should still be plenty good enough to garner a bowl berth.

5.) Baylor – Everyone expects the Bears to make a leap to the postseason this year. I'm not so sure. QB Robert Griffin was tremendous as a freshman, and possesses world-class speed. However, he doesn't yet have the playmakers around him to lighten the load, which means he has to be nearly flawless every week for Baylor to win. RB Jay Finley is a returning starter, but in the Bears' high-octane offense, he is more valuable as a pass-catcher. WRs David Gettis, Kendall Wright, and Ernest Smith are very good targets for Griffin, and should put up some terrific numbers in Baylor's wide-open system. On defense, the Bears return 9 starters to a unit that was fairly decent last year. If they can take a step up, Baylor may make the postseason after all. It will be up to DE Zac Scotton to apply the pressure, as the rest of the line is steady, but unspectacular. LB Antonio Jones leads a unit that is sure-tackling, and will provide very good run support for the line. In the secondary, safeties Jordan Lake and Jeremy Williams will have to be great from the start to compensate for two new cornerbacks. Playing well against the pass is key for the defense in the pass-heavy South division. Baylor's schedule starts easily enough, but toughens up late. A late November game against Texas A&M may determine whether or not the Bears go bowling...if they can manage 5 wins before then.

6.) Texas A&M – After hiring Mike Sherman in a questionable move, the Aggies struggled to a 4-8 record in 2008. However, there are signs of hope as the offense returns 9 starters and the defense returns 5 starters. QB Jerrod Johnson is a dual-threat player, capable of big gains all on his own. He'll be throwing to an experienced WR corps led by Jeff Fuller and Terrence McCoy, both of whom have big-game experience despite neither being a senior. RBs Cyrus Gray and Jay Tolliver will work to replace the departed Mike Goodson, but may find it hard living up to that task. If the Aggies are to improve, the defense needs to play better. DEs Matt Moss and Von Miller will try to provide A&M with a pass rush that was missing last season. If they can do their job, it will make it easier on the new, inexperienced linebackers. LBs Kyle Mangan and Garrick Williams are talented, but will need some seasoning before they make an impact. The secondary features 3 returning starters, led by CB Terrence Frederick. Safeties Jordan Pugh and Trent Hunter are effective players who should help make up for any mistakes the new defenders may encounter. The Aggies' schedule is brutal. With good chances for a quick start, the Aggies must overcome games against Arkansas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma away from home. The home slate isn't any easier, facing Texas and Oklahoma State. It'll be at least another year before the Aggies return to the postseason.

Disappointing Team: Nebraska

Surprise Team: Kansas

Top Players: QB Sam Bradford, Oklahoma; QB Colt McCoy, Texas; WR Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State; QB Zac Robinson, Oklahoma State; WR Dezmon Briscoe, Kansas

Players to Keep An Eye On: DE Sergio Kindle, Texas; QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri; WR/TE Kerry Meier, Kansas; RB Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State; QB Zac Lee, Nebraska

Key Games: Texas vs. Oklahoma, October 17th; Texas at Oklahoma State, October 31st; Nebraska at Kansas, November 14th; Oklahoma State at Oklahoma, November 28th; Kansas vs. Missouri, November 28th

Coolest Jerseys: Texas Longhorns

~~ Lank