College Football Preview: Mountain West Conference

Shhh, don't say "mid-major" around these guys or else they might take you to Congress. Just ask the BCS. Despite only having one team that has made noise in the BCS race (maybe two if you count TCU, though they never win their statement games), the Mountain West Conference REALLY wants a piece of that BCS money. Heck, who doesn't? The only problem is that, top to bottom, the league isn't all that strong. I hear the "Mountain West is better than the Big East" argument at least five times per year, but it's simply not true. Utah has been good at beating teams they should, but who was their elite win last year before the bowl game against Alabama? Michigan? Oregon State? TCU? But I digress. The MWC is clearly the class of the mid-major conferences, but that doesn't make them worthy of the an automatic BCS bid, ok? Good, glad we cleared that up.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.) TCU - Sleep on the Horned Frogs at your own peril; these boys are good. After finishing 11-2 last year, with losses to Oklahoma and Utah, TCU is back and ready to improve on their #7 final ranking. The offense, led by QB Andy Dalton, is better than you think and shouldn't have too much of a problem scoring enough to win this season. RBs Joseph Turner and Ryan Christian will get plenty of carries, but will need help from a re-tooling offensive line if they're to be productive. The receivers are young but athletic and shouldn't have a problem acclimating themselves to Dalton. Defensively, it's the same story for coach Gary Patterson's group. The bad news is that they only return 4 starters; the good news is that 3 of them are in the secondary and the other one is stud DE Jerry Hughes. Hughes will get plenty of pressure on the quarterback, making other teams rush throws to an experienced defensive backfield featuring standout CBs Nick Sanders and Rafael Priest, and MWC name of the year nominee Tekerrein Cuba. The linebackers are new, but TCU has never had a problem re-stocking the cupboard with fast, athletic linebackers. Last year's defense was first in the nation in total yardage, so even a little slip would still make this unit one of the country's best. The schedule is great news for TCU. Road games at Virginia and Clemson are fun, but the real deal is that Utah must come to Fort Worth after escaping last year's meeting in Salt Lake City with a three-point victory. The Horned Frogs must travel to BYU, but should be up to the task.

2.) BYU - On one hand, the Cougars had a successful 2008, going 10-3. On the other hand, they lost to the two best teams in the conference, TCU and Utah, and their bowl game vs. Arizona. So really, what did they accomplish? That looks to change this year with stud QB Max Hall returning along with 8 starters on a solid defense. Hall lost most of his receivers, but TE Dennis Pitta is a stud and will help the passing game maintain its high level of play. WRs O'Neill Chambers and Luke Ashworth will be the first to get a crack at replacing Austin Collie and Co. The running game, behind the burly Harvey Unga, will also be very good. Unga rushed for 1,132 yards last season and could exceed that number this year. On defense, the Cougars feature a very experienced defensive line. DE Jan Jorgensen has 24 career sacks and should terrorize opposing QBs all season long. LB Matt Bauman returns after registering 108 tackles last year. The secondary is a problem, but the return of FS Scott Johnson should provide some consistency. This is the unit that could take BYU from good to great if they perform well. BYU can't ask for much more from its schedule. Non-conference games against Oklahoma and Florida State provide statement opportunities, and both Utah and TCU must come to Provo.

3.) Utah - Despite what the pundits would have you believe, the Utes haven't been consistently elite. After every good season, they follow it up with a mediocre one. Expect that trend to continue in 2009. The quarterback situation is a mess, as presumed starter Corbin Louks transferred to Nevada. The Utes will be relying on juco transfer Terrance Cain and freshman Jordan Wynn to produce immediately. If that weren't enough of a problem all of the starters at wide receiver and running back are also gone. RB Matt Asiata has been productive in limited time, so Utah is hoping he can produce in a full-time role as well. The line returns 3 starters, so that should help the new offense get on track. On defense, Utah will be very good. 7 starters return to a unit that ranked 11th in total defense nationally last season. DEs Derrick Shelby and Koa Misi are terrific, and the linebacking corps, led by Mike Wright, may be the best in the conference. The schedule isn't much fun for the Utes. Road trips to Oregon, BYU, and TCU are all tough and will tell us whether Utah is up to the challenge of repeating as conference champ.

4.) Air Force - Coach Troy Calhoun doesn't get enough credit for the job he's done in his two years in Colorado Springs. Prior to his arrival, beloved coach Fisher DeBerry had led a couple of underachieving teams, but Calhoun has immediately won 17 games in just two seasons. This year, the Falcons have the potential to surprise, but must get a lot of things to go their way. The first thing is the quarterback situation. Returning starter Tim Jefferson showed talent last year as a freshman, but must become a more efficient passer for Calhoun's modified wishbone attack to thrive. On the ground, RB Asher Clark is very talented and is a threat to make a big play every time he touches the ball. The receivers are all new, but in a run-based offense, that weakness will not be exposed with any regularity. The Falcon defense has a chance to be very, very good. 6 starters return, 5 of them being in the back seven. If the defensive line can play consistently with the new faces, the Air Force defense will be tough to score against. LBs Ken Lamendola and Andre Morris are the heart and soul of the unit. The schedule is tough. Road games against Navy, Utah, and BYU will dictate how successful the season becomes. TCU must come to Colorado Springs, which should put them on upset alert.

5.) UNLV - The Rebels were only 5-7 last year, but were 8 points away from being 7-5 and on their way to a bowl game. I look for them to finally achieve that goal this season. The offense will go as does QB Omar Clayton. Last season, Clayton threw 18 TDs to only 4 INTs despite missing three games to injury. His return bodes well for the offense. No experienced running backs are in Las Vegas, but senior Chris Brogdon and freshman speedster Bradley Randle will get the first crack at producing. The Rebels return a splendid group of receivers, led by WR Ryan Wolfe. Look for this corps to put up good numbers all season long. On the other side of the ball, UNLV needs work. There are 7 starters back, but the group only finished 103rd in total defense last year. Improvement is required in order for the Rebels to reach their potential as a team. LB Jason Beauchamp led the MWC in tackles last season. The schedule sets up well for UNLV. BYU and Utah come to Vegas in back-to-back weeks and winnable games against Colorado State and San Diego State are also at home. Beating Wyoming and New Mexico on the road could make this a special year for the Rebels.

6.) Colorado State - Coach Steve Fairchild led the Rams to a bowl game in his first year as head coach in 2008. In order to return to the postseason, CSU needs to retool the defense and find a new QB/RB combination. The first crack at playing quarterback will go to Grant Stucker, a senior who is steady if unspectacular. However, there are several other guys looking to take his spot. At running back, junior college All-American Leonard Mason will attempt to bring his success to the highest level of college football. The good news for the offense is that 4 starters return to a very good line and whoever wins the QB job will have a bunch of good receivers to throw to. WR Rashuan Greer had a 1,000-yard season in 2008, and will look to repeat that feat in 2009. On defense, the front seven returns only 2 starters, DT Ty Whittier and LB Mychal Sisson. The pass rush will be a question mark, which will put a ton of pressure on the new linebackers. The secondary should be good as both corners, Gerard Thomas and Nick Oppenneer, return. The schedule is not in the Rams' favor. Road trips to TCU, BYU, and UNLV will be tough, and beating Utah at home will be no small feat.

7.) San Diego State - Despite being one of the worst teams in D1-A last year, the Aztecs have a chance to improve drastically in 2009. Why? New coach Brady Hoke, fresh off an undefeated regular season at Ball State, brings credibility and a new attitude. Also, 14 starters return; with an even 7 on each side of the ball. The fresh energy and returning experience could bode well for SDSU. Sophomore QB Ryan Lindley had a very productive freshman year and should only get better with experience. He's throwing to a solid group of receivers, led by Vincent Brown. If Lindley is able to find a connection with his receivers immediately, the offense could provide some problems for opponents. Brandon Sullivan and MWC name of the year nominee Atiyyah Henderson will battle for the starting running back job until one separates himself from the other. On defense, which is Hoke's specialty, a new attitude could do them some good. Three defensive linemen, two linebackers, and two defensive backs return to the starting lineup, so experience shouldn't be a problem. If the production matches up to the talent, the Aztecs may progress ahead of schedule. SDSU will not win many games, but at least winnable games against New Mexico and Wyoming are at home.

8.) New Mexico - New head coach Mike Locksley looks to revive a program that, frankly, grew stagnant under former coach Rocky Long. His offenses at Illinois were very good, and he'll look to have the same touch in Albuquerque. It all starts with QB Donovan Porterie. If he shows consistency, the offense could surprise. If he struggles, backup Brad Gruner will get an opportunity to show what he can do. The running game will be divided amongst three guys, Terence Brown, James Wright, and A.J. Butler. Neither has shown the ability to be "the guy," so carries will be shared. Wide receiver, and MWC name of the year nominee, Roland Bruno must lead the receiving corps in their transition to a passing offense. On defense, the Lobos must rebuild. Only 1 starter returns to the front seven, LB Clint McPeek. The secondary should be good with safeties Frankie Solomon and Ian Clark returning. However, the defensive line is all new and will struggle to put pressure on the quarterback. The schedule does New Mexico no favors. Winnable games against Wyoming and San Diego State are on the road, so getting 2 conference wins would be quite an accomplishment for Locksley and company in his debut.

9.) Wyoming - Well, this should be fun. Joe Glenn was fired, and Dave Christensen, fresh off rewriting the record books as offensive coordinator at Missouri, was hired as head coach. With him comes a high-octane passing attack and a new energy. QB Austyn Carta-Samuels will be the first to try to master Christensen's no-huddle offense. He'll be throwing to a limited group of receivers, led by Greg Bolling, who only had 271 yards receiving last year. However, more passes means more opportunities for the group to prove itself. On defense, the Cowboys return 8 starters from a group that was 38th overall in total defense. DT John Fletcher is able to provide pressure from the interior, and LB Gabe Knapton is a tackling machine. If this unit continues to produce like it did last year, the Cowboys could be in for a surprisingly good year. The schedule makers were not kind to Wyoming. Home games against BYU and TCU are virtual losses and possible wins against San Diego State and Colorado State must come on the road.

Disappointing Team: Utah

Surprise Team: UNLV

Top Players: QB Max Hall, BYU; RB Harvey Unga, BYU; DE Jerry Hughes, TCU; WR Ryan Wolfe, UNLV; DE Derrick Shelby, Utah

Players to Keep An Eye On: QB Tim Jefferson, Air Force; RB Matt Asiata, Utah; WR Luke Ashworth, BYU; QB Donovan Porterie, New Mexico; QB Ryan Lindley, San Diego State

Key Games: TCU at Air Force, October 10th; TCU at BYU, October 24th; UNLV at Air Force, November 14th; Utah at TCU, November 14th; Utah at BYU, November 28th

Coolest Jerseys: Texas Christian Horned Frogs

~~ Lank