Conference USA is such a fitting title for this group of teams. When you have twelve schools representing nine different states, it truly is a nationwide conference. Not that the alignment makes sense or anything, what with East Carolina and UTEP belonging in the same league, but it’s still fun to talk about. Speaking of ECU, the Pirates have made some national noise lately with their wins over Virginia Tech, North Carolina, and West Virginia in the past couple years. They look to be the head of the class, but don’t be surprised if they have some stiff competition on the road to repeating as Conference USA champion.
Predicted Order of Finish:
East Division:
1.) East Carolina – Since taking the helm in 2005, Pirates head coach Skip Holtz has done wonders in Greenville. Prior to his arrival, a once-proud football program was reeling, missing a bowl in three straight seasons. However, in four years, Holtz has taken the Pirates to three bowl games, and captured his first C-USA championship last season. In order to make it two in a row, ECU will need more production from its offense. QB Patrick Pinkney returns to lead the charge, and will be flanked by a good receiving corps featuring Dwayne Harris, Alex Taylor, and Darryl Freeney. If the passing game can find a rhythm early, it would help take the pressure of an unsettled running game. The running back situation is a mess, with both Jonathan Williams and Norman Whitley facing eligibility uncertainty due to off-the-field issues. Williams is a talented player, but means nothing to the Pirates if he’s not on the field. Defensively, East Carolina is ready to rock. S Van Eskridge is the leader of a unit that was in the Top 30 nationally in scoring defense last season. The line returns 3 starters including sackmaster DE C.J. Wilson. Nick Johnson and Jeremy Chambliss are tackling machines for a stout group of linebackers. The Pirates, as usual, face a tough slate of non-conference opponents, but should be able to hold their own in Conference USA. Road games against Marshall, SMU, and Memphis are rather soft, with the road date at Tulsa the only concern.
2.) Southern Miss – Larry Fedora, in his first year last season after the controversial firing of beloved coach Jeff Bower, took a while to get things going in 2008. However, once his Golden Eagles caught on, they went on a 5-game winning streak, capped off by a win over Troy in the New Orleans Bowl. The secret to Fedora’s success is his high-octane offense featuring star WR DeAndre Brown and stud RB Damion Fletcher. Fletcher rushed for 1,313 yards last year, and may go even higher this year. If Brown is fully healthy after a gruesome leg injury in the bowl game, he should build on a freshman campaign that featured a 1,000-yard season. Sophomore QB Austin Davis returns after a highly-successful freshman year, poised to put up huge numbers. This offense will average over 30 points per game; mark it down. Defensively, Southern Miss improved last year as well. After starting slowly, the unit came around and held opponents to 62 total points during the season-ending 5-game winning streak. It all starts up front with a stout defensive line led by all-conference performer Anthony Gray at defensive tackle. The linebackers are somewhat new, but hard-hitting Martez Smith will make sure they don’t slip too far. The secondary is talented and experienced, returning all four starters from a year ago. The Golden Eagles have a very good team, but road games at Houston and East Carolina, the favorites in their respective divisions, will keep them from achieving their goal of a conference championship. An 8-win season is not out of the question, though.
3.) UCF – The Knights were terrible on offense last year. There, I said it. A passing game that was 115th in the country last year was the reason the offense mustered only 17 points per game. Coach George O’Leary reshuffled his staff looking for a spark in 2009. QB Rob Calabrese returns, but considering his putrid numbers last year, that’s not necessarily a plus. His receiving corps should be solid, led by C-USA name of the year nominee Rocky Ross. RB Brynn Harvey showed some promise last season, but will need to be more consistent if the Knights are to rely on him. Defensively, UCF should be very good. They were good against the run last year, and return 4 starters to the front seven. DT Travis Troup looks ready for a breakout year. FS Derrick Hallman is the lone returning starter in the secondary, but there is talent in place to ensure there is no slippage from last season. The Knights must go on the road to play Southern Miss and East Carolina, but home games against Marshall, Memphis, and Tulane seem very winnable.
4.) Marshall – The glory days of former coach Bob Pruett are gone, but Marshall still has a few talented players that could lead them to a successful season if a few breaks fall their way. Leading the charge on offense is RB Darius Marshall (no really, that’s his name), who rushed for nearly 1,100 yards in 2008. With a new quarterback at the helm, Marshall will rely on Marshall (sorry, I had to do it) to keep the chains moving. That new quarterback will most likely be Brian Anderson, who will step in for Mark Cann after the coaches decided to go in a new direction following Cann’s up-and-down 2008 campaign. The receivers are unproven and will not provide much help to whoever ends up playing quarterback. The good news is that the offensive line should be solid, giving the new passer plenty of time to throw. The defense is led by a deep, experienced line that features stud DE Albert McClellan. The linebacking corps and secondary each return two starters, so the experience is there for the Thundering Herd to be productive on D. Marshall’s schedule is pretty favorable, with home dates against ECU and Southern Miss. Should they hold serve at home, and win road games against Tulane and Memphis, the Herd could achieve a surprise standing at the end of the year.
5.) Memphis – Admittedly, this might be a little low to place the Tigers. They return a very good backfield on offense and 7 starters on defense. My biggest concern, though, is that both lines must be rebuilt and that usually spells trouble for any college football team, especially one that only won 6 games last year. Yes, Memphis made a bowl game, but was shellacked by South Florida. QB Arkelon Hall, a C-USA name of the year nominee, and RB Curtis Steele form a one-two punch that stands up next to most in the conference. WR Carlos Singleton returns after catching 5 TDs last season. Don’t be surprised if he goes over 1,000 yards this year. On defense, the secondary and linebackers will be very good. LB Greg Jackson led the team in sacks last year and should be very productive once again. The only new starter in the defensive backfield is FS DeRon Furr, an Auburn transfer who is plenty talented. The line only returns 1 starter, DE Jada Brown, so the unit must come together quickly if the defense is to perform up to expectations. The Tigers’ schedule is brutal. Road games at Southern Miss, Houston, and Tulsa mean they have three losses right off the bat; and that’s before you consider the appearance of East Carolina in Memphis come October. C-USA did the Tigers no favors with this slate.
6.) UAB – This year’s version of the Blazers should be able to score pretty consistently; the problem is that they’re unlikely to stop anyone themselves. QB Joe Webb leads an offense that returns a lot of talent. Webb, who passed for 2,000 yards and rushed for 1,000 last season, will throw a lot to WR Frantrell Forrest, UAB’s leading returning receiver. The running game is in good hands with RB Rashaud Slaughter, who should be able to combine his flashy style with a more consistent approach this year. On the other side of the ball, UAB needs help. Their defense finished 106th in total defense last year and shouldn’t fare much better this year. The line returns 2 starters and should be the best part of the defense. The linebackers are led by Keon Harris, who only made 47 stops last year. The secondary is all new, which isn’t good since they’ll be tested early and often after a poor showing in 2008. CB Terrell Springs showed promise last year, but must improve this season to help out the unit. We’ll find out how UAB’s season is going to go early on, as they face Rice and SMU at home in their first two games. Win those, and they may surprise; but lose them, and last year’s 4 wins may seem like an accomplishment this year.
West Division:
1.) Houston – Offense, offense, and more offense. That’s the name of the game at Houston these days, where QB Case Keenum looks to improve on his 5,020 yards passing and 44 TDs last season. Is it possible? I’m not sure, but I wouldn’t bet against him. This kid is very, very good. RB Bryce Beall often gets lost in the shuffle due to the insane passing attack, but he rushed for 1,247 yards and 13 TDs in 2008, so don’t sleep on him. The wide receivers are a very deep, talented group, led by C-USA name of the year nominee Tyron Carrier. Houston will lead the nation in total offense this season; bet on it. Defensively…well, it doesn’t much matter. The Cougars are going to score in bunches and the defense just has to hang on for dear life and hope that it doesn’t give up 50 points. LBs Matt Nicholson and Marcus McGraw lead a solid group, and the secondary should be much improved over last year’s unit with the addition of junior college CB Devin Mays. November 7th at Tulsa. That is the game which will tell us if Houston is ready to take over in the West or not. Everything else falls into place nicely for the Cougars, but they must knock off the defending champion to make it all worthwhile.
2.) Tulsa – Yes, Houston’s offense is going to be good, but Tulsa is the reigning West champion and also led the nation in total offense last year with 570 yards per game. QB David Johnson has graduated, and an intriguing race is taking place to determine his successor. Jacob Bower has the most experience, but G.J. Kinne is a transfer from Texas, and C-USA name of the year nominee Shavodrick Beaver is a very talented true freshman who de-committed from Michigan to head down to Tulsa. Whoever wins this race will put up huge numbers, partly because of a dynamic group of wide receivers. Freshman All-American Damaris Johnson is back for year two, and C-USA name of the year nominee Slick Shelley and Trae Johnson put up some good numbers themselves. Don’t expect much of a drop-off from the offense this season. The defense features a better-than-average group of linebackers which returns all three starters. The secondary, which features five players because of the Golden Hurricane’s 3-3-5 alignment, also returns three starters, including James Lockett, who led the team in sacks last season. If the defensive line shows improvement against the run, Tulsa may very well win the West again. The schedule features a couple of sneaky-tough road games at UAB and Southern Miss, but it all comes down to the home game against Houston. Win that, and the division crown belongs to the Golden Hurricane.
3.) UTEP – As the defense goes, so will go the Miners. Coach Mike Price has done a good job of designing offenses that consistently put up points, but stopping opponents has been an issue for UTEP. Last year, they ranked 115th in total defense. Simply put, no matter how good the offense may be, it won’t mean a thing if the defense isn’t better than 115th. The unit returns 7 starters and should be improved in year two of running a new 3-3-5 scheme. Defensive linemen Steve Riddick and Robert Soleyjacks provide beef up front, clearing the way for LBs Isaiah Carter and Royzell Smith to roam. The secondary should be the best part of the defense, featuring two returning starters at cornerback and another at safety. Luckily for the Miners, they have a prolific offense on which to rely. QB Trevor Vittatoe threw for 33 TDs last season and is a threat to reach 4,000 yards passing this year. WRs Jeff Moturi, C-USA name of the year nominee Tufick Shadrawy, and Kris Adams form one of the deepest units in the conference. The offensive line returns three starters and should give Vittatoe and his receivers plenty of time to make big plays. UTEP’s schedule is very favorable. Both Houston and Tulsa must travel to El Paso, and the road games are against Memphis, Tulane, SMU, and Rice. If the Miners get hot, they may surprise people and end up in the C-USA title game.
4.) Rice – Honestly, I don’t quite know what to make of the Owls. They lost record-setting duo QB Chase Clement and WR Jarett Dillard, but return a solid group of receivers, led by Toren Dixon and Patrick Randolph. Throwing to them will most likely be Alabama transfer Nick Fanuzzi, who played well in the spring game. It will be impossible to replicate the production of Clement and Dillard, especially with offensive coordinator Tom Herman having moved on to Iowa State, but if Fanuzzi is better than average and the WRs play up to their ability, Rice’s offense should still be plenty good. Defensively, the line is the strength, led by all-conference DE Cheta Ozougwu. Three starters total return to the line and that’s going to help an inexperienced linebacking corps. Terrance Garmon is an athletic linebacker and should be able to make some plays. The secondary returns three starters but was terrible against the pass in 2008, so improvements must be made. Rice has a pretty balanced schedule, but must spring a few upsets to contend again in the West. Home games against UTEP and Tulsa are crucial, as is the road date to end the season against Houston.
5.) SMU – June Jones brought his run-and-shoot passing attack to Dallas last season from Hawaii, but didn’t enjoy any of the success that his Warriors did. It’s a complicated system that takes repetitions to master, so look for the offense to be more prolific this season. QB Bo Levi Mitchell, a C-USA name of the year nominee, must improve his decision-making ability. His 24-23 TD-to-INT ratio last year will be unacceptable this year. The wide receivers are a group of playmakers led by Aldrick Robinson and Emmanuel Sanders. If Mitchell can consistently feed the ball to this unit, there will be points aplenty scored at SMU. The offensive line returns three starters and must to do a better job of protecting Mitchell to prevent him from forcing throws. On defense, the Mustangs are bad. Bad, bad, bad. The defensive line must be rebuilt and only one linebacker returns. Luckily, the secondary returns all four starters, but it may not matter if teams are able to run all over an inexperienced front seven. Look for WR Emmanuel Sanders to also play some nickelback in order to provide some athleticism to the unit. After winning only one game (against Texas State, no less) in 2008, the Mustangs can’t be much worse. Home games against Stephen F. Austin and Tulane seem winnable, but asking for more than 4 wins is a pipe dream.
6.) Tulane – Hmm, let’s see. Last year, the Green Wave finished 112th in the country in scoring offense and 106th in the country in scoring defense. Nowhere to go but up, right? QB Joe Kemp missed time last year with injury, but should be the starter this year. He has good athleticism and a decent arm. His corps of wideouts is suspect, featuring little in the way of talent and experience. The offensive line is nearly all brand new, so Kemp will have very little time to make decisions. The strength of the offense is RB Andre Anderson, who averaged nearly 5 yards per carry last season. If he gets enough touches, Tulane may win more than a couple games. Defensively, the Green Wave feature a good line and not much else. DTs Oscar Ponce de Leon, a C-USA name of the year nominee, and Reggie Scott headline a unit that must lead the way for the defense. The back seven returns only 1 starter from last year, CB Charles Harris. The new players don’t have much of a standard to live up to, but must perform well if Tulane has dreams of being competitive. For what it’s worth, most of Tulane’s toughest games will be in the Superdome, including Tulsa, Houston, and UTEP. However, the Green Wave should focus more on road games at Rice and SMU if they want wins.
Disappointing Team: UTEP
Surprise Team: Rice
Top Players: QB Case Keenum, Houston; S Van Eskridge, East Carolina; WR Damaris Johnson, Tulsa; RB Damion Fletcher, Southern Miss; RB Bryce Beall, Houston
Players to Keep An Eye On: WR Daryl Freeney, East Carolina; QB Nick Fanuzzi, Rice; DT Travis Troup, UCF; WR/DB Emmanuel Sanders, SMU; QB Jacob Bower/G.J. Kinne/Shavodrick Beaver, Tulsa
Key Games: Tulsa at UTEP, October 21st; Southern Miss at Houston, October 31st; Houston at Tulsa, November 7th; East Carolina at Tulsa, November 15th; Southern Miss at East Carolina, November 28th;
Coolest Jerseys: Tulsa Golden Hurricane
~~ Lank
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