Thursday, August 20, 2009

College Football Preview: Mid-American Conference

Start with a bunch of Ohio schools. Throw in a few directional Michigan schools. Then poach a few from random areas that are pretty close to Ohio. What do you end up with? That's right, the Mid-American Conference. Home to myriad fun shootouts every year, the MAC used to reign supreme when it came to the mid-major conferences. Marshall was the top dog, Toledo was good, Bowling Green had a few years in the sun. Well, that's the old MAC. The new MAC features a bunch of schools that love to cannibalize one another during the season, then lose their respective bowl games. As a matter of fact, no MAC team has won a bowl since 2006, when Central Michigan beat Middle Tennessee State in the Motor City Bowl. So, what's in store for the MAC this year? Let's find out.

Predicted Order of Finish:
East Division:
1.) Bowling Green - It was an interesting offseason for the Falcons. They fired coach Gregg Brandon, who had quite a bit of success with the program. However, character issues off the field overshadowed what was occurring on the field, which led to his dismissal. Taking his place is Dave Clawson, the former head coach at 1-AA Richmond who spent last season as Tennessee's offensive coordinator before being let go with Phillip Fulmer and the rest of his staff. Clawson's resume features an up-tempo offense that uses two backs and a lot of passing. Luckily for him, the Falcons return one of the top players in the conference in QB Tyler Sheehan. The senior passer will have his favorite target, senior Freddie Barnes, to throw to once again this fall. The running back position will feature two guys who will most likely split time all season long. Willie Geter and Chris Bullock complement one another well, as Bullock runs between the tackles and Geter looks to take things outside. This offense should put up plenty of points. Can Bowling Green stop anyone, though? That question will define their season. The Falcons feature one of the best secondaries in the conference, led by safeties P.J. Mahone and Jahmal Brown. The defensive line features no returning starters, but the Falcons gave up 163 yards on the ground last year, so that's not necessarily a bad thing. The linebackers are solid, led by all-conference candidate Jerett Sanderson. Bowling Green caught a break with their schedule, as their four conference road games are against teams that don't look to be very good. Kent State, Ball State, Buffalo, and Miami (OH) are all winnable games, though the Falcons will have to win tough games at home against Central Michigan and Akron if they are to fulfill their early season promise.

2.) Buffalo - Hats off to Turner Gill and his staff. Prior to his arrival, Buffalo was the laughingstock of the MAC. People often wondered if they'd even win a game. Last year, Gill made their turnaround complete with a shocking win over Ball State in the MAC Title game to win the school's first conference championship. Unfortunately for Gill, he must replace do-everything QB Drew Willy and rebuild both his offensive and defensive lines. The passing game should be ok as long as new QB Zach Maynard throws early and often to All-MAC WR Naaman Roosevelt, who had 1,402 yards and 13 TDs receiving last season. RB James Starks put up some great numbers himself, and looks to increase his yardage total from last year's 1,333 rushing yards. If the offensive line can come together quickly, this offense could really take off. Defensively, the Bulls got away with using a lot of smoke and mirrors last year. Their turnover rate was 3rd in the country, and they used those turnovers to mask shortcomings in their defense. You have to believe those bounces won't go their way two years in a row, so they must rely on an unproven group to get the job done. The secondary is the strength of the defense, led by All-MAC safeties Mike Newton and Davonte Shannon. The linebackers are experienced, featuring stud OLB Justin Winters, but a brand new line will make life on them hard. The schedule isn't too bad, with only a trip to Western Michigan causing a problem. If the Bulls play well at home, they may well be on their way to a third consecutive MAC East title.

3.) Akron - Score more than the other team. That's the goal for the Akron Zips this season. The offense returns 9 starters to a group that ranked 36th in the country in scoring. QB Chris Jacquemain returns to throw to the deepest receiving corps in the conference. WRs Deryn Bowser (a MAC name of the year nominee), Jeremy Bruce, and Andre Jones will give opposing defensive coordinators nightmares all season long. Replacing an all-conference RB is never easy, but the Zips may rely on freshman DeVoe Torrence, a former Ohio State commit, to do so. Defensively, Akron needs improvement from their returning starters. Surrendering over 187 yards on the ground, as the Zips did last year, will not cut it. The secondary should be very good, with three returning starters, but if the defensive line, led by DE Almondo Sewell, can't pressure the quarterback, it may not matter. Akron may be more talented than the teams picked ahead of them, but their schedule will make sure they don't get the division crown. Road trips to Central Michigan, Buffalo, and Bowling Green will prove too tough to overcome.

4.) Ohio - Coach Frank Solich has been unlucky lately, losing key players to injury at key moments in the season. If his guys can all stay healthy this year, Ohio has a chance to surprise in the East. QB Boo Jackson, a MAC name of the year nominee, leads an offense that was decent, but not great, last year. His favorite target is senior WR Taylor Price, who will challenge for all-conference honors this season. The running game should be helped by converted wide receiver Chris Garrett, who ran well against Miami (OH) in the season finale of 2008. On the other side of the ball lies the Bobcats' strength. The defense returns 7 starters and is poised to be one of the most stingy groups in the MAC. The front seven features a number of quality players, including DE Curtis Meyers and LBs Noah Keller and Lee Renfro. If all-conference safety Steven Jackson plays the way he did last year, it would be a big boost to an inexperienced secondary. Ohio's schedule is a mixed bag. They miss all of the directional Michigan schools, but must go on the road to Bowling Green, Akron, and Buffalo. Those games will make or break their season.

5.) Kent State - Eugene Jarvis, Eugene Jarvis, Eugene Jarvis. Oh, did I mention Eugene Jarvis? Just making sure. After losing QB Julian Edelman, who accounted for nearly 2/3 of the Golden Flashes' offense last year, KSU must give the ball to RB Jarvis, who ran for 1,669 yards in 2007 before being limited to 801 yards last season. With Edelman out of the way, Jarvis will get plenty of opportunities to carry the offense, and he should be able to respond. The offensive line returns four starters, which should help Jarvis achieve his goals, and help new QB Giorgio Morgan get settled in to the position. Defensively, Kent State needs help. A unit that wasn't particularly strong last year returns 6 starters, but all must improve. The defensive line should be better with the return of stud NG Sam Frist. The linebacking unit needs to be replenished, but former Michigan Wolverine Cobrani Mixon should help with the transition. The secondary needs new corners, but the safeties form a good duo to complement the cornerback situation. Kent State's schedule features no guaranteed wins, but the road games against Eastern Michigan and Temple should be winnable. The Golden Flashes must pull a few surprises at home in order to go bowling this winter.

6.) Temple - Al Golden is the man. Taking over an impossible situation that featured getting booted out of the Big East, apathetic fans, and no recruiting base, Golden has made the Owls semi-respectable. A bowl game would be the ultimate prize, but he may have to wait a year. The 2009 Temple defense is good enough to make a bowl game, but the offense is not. The offensive line and backfield features a host of new starters, none of whom have very much experience. The quarterback race features a battle between Vaughn Charlton and Chester Stewart, but neither has pulled ahead. Defensively, the Owls are good to go. The line boasts a talented group of players, led by three-year starter Andre Neblett. LBs Alex Joseph and MAC name of the year nominee Amara Kamara provide a powerful one-two punch for opposing rushers. The secondary returns three starters and should give up less than the 221 yards per game through the air that they did last season. Ball State, Miami (OH), and Kent State all must come to Philadelphia, which should boost the chances of the Owls making their first bowl in a long time.

7.) Miami (OH) - New coach Mike Haywood is facing a tough situation in his first year. The Redhawks don't have much talent, and the fanbase has grown increasingly apathetic since former coach Shane Montgomery took what his predecessor, Terry Hoeppner, had built and ran it right into the ground. The offense was atrocious last year and this defense was equally bad, which is how Miami ended up winning only 2 games. QB Daniel Raudabaugh gives Haywood something to work with on offense, but the receivers lack talent and the line returns only 1 starter. Quincy Landingham, a transfer from Wisconsin, will be relied upon to carry the load at running back. On defense, the Redhawks must start from scratch. The linebacking corps is entirely new and the defensive line returns only 1 starter, DT Martin Channels. The cornerbacks are experienced, but the secondary as a whole lacks depth. Miami's schedule could be worse. They must travel to Western Michigan and Ohio, but get Bowling Green and Buffalo at home. Not that it will matter.

West Division:
1.) Central Michigan - The Chippewas boast one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Dan LeFevour. His total offense numbers are starting to get ridiculous, and there's no reason to expect a dropoff from him this year. Especially since he gets three top targets back in WRs Bryan Anderson, MAC name of the year nominee Kito Poblah, and Antonio Brown. The running back situation is relatively suspect, but not enough to think that CMU will have a problem scoring. They will not. Slowing down the other team, however, could be a problem. 10 starters return on defense...but that defense was ranked 104th in total defense last season. The glass-half-full approach views that as players getting experience last year and transferring it to success this year. LB Nick Bellore and DE Sam Williams are the players to watch on the Chippewa D. Central Michigan's schedule features a huge road game at Western Michigan, which could decide the division title race. Going to Bowling Green could be tough as well, but the other games will feature CMU as the favorite.

2.) Western Michigan - If not for the exploits of Dan LeFevour, QB Tim Hiller would be getting a ton of love in the MAC. After throwing for 3,725 yards and 36 TDs last year, the senior is focused on returning to the MAC championship game. Juan Nunez will be his go-to receiver, and the offensive line returns 4 starters, so don't expect the passing game to slip much, if at all. RB Brandon West is also back after a 1,000-yard season in 2008. Defense...well, that could be an issue. The lone returning starter is LB Austin Pritchard. Everyone else is new. It's not like the 2008 version of the Bronco D set the world on fire, so the expectations can be met as long as the new players step up. DE Justin Braska had 7 sacks last season, so look for him to become the cornerstone of the rebuilt defensive line. As long as the Broncos can hold serve at home, they should be in good shape to win the division. A road game at Northern Illinois could be tricky, but everything else sets up nicely for a trip to Detroit for the MAC title game.

3.) Northern Illinois - The sleeper team in the MAC West, Northern Illinois features a hungry unit that is looking to build on a surprise bowl appearance in 2008. Coach Jerry Kill has instilled a winning attitude in only one season at the helm. The offense, led by QB Chandler Harnish, should be solid. The Huskies are a running team, and sophomore RB Me'co Brown is more than talented enough to handle the big workload. The wide receiver corps lacks a playmaker, but features two steady options in Nathan Palmer and Landon Cox. Three starters return on the offensive line to protect Harnish. Defensively, the Huskies will be very strong. Led by safeties Mike Sobol and David Bryant, the secondary will set the example for the defense until the new LBs and DEs can catch up. Look for this unit to hit its stride four or five games into the season, much like last year, just in time for the conference race. The game at Central Michigan is probably a loss, but everything else falls into place for NIU. Home dates against Western Michigan and Akron could be the difference between 6-6 and 8-4.

4.) Toledo - New coach Tim Beckman returns to his Ohio roots from Oklahoma State (where he was defensive coordinator) in hopes of leading the Rockets back to prominence. His first team features 16 returning starters and should be a tough game for all of its conference opponents. QB Aaron Opelt and a solid trio of receivers provide a nice passing element to the offense, but RBs DaJuane Collins and Morgan Williams are the stalwarts of the unit. Collins had 700 yards last year in an injury-shortened season, and Williams rushed for over 1,000 in his place. Both are looking to build on those numbers this year. Behind an experienced offensive line, this offense should sparkle. Defensively, Beckman has worked on getting his players faster in an attempt to have multiple guys flying to the ball. MAC name of the year nominee Skylaar Constant leads the defensive line, which must improve after only registering 10 sacks last year. LB Archie Donald is the heart and soul of the defense and led the team with 119 tackles last year. Road games against Central Michigan and rival Bowling Green will prove to be a tough task, but if Toledo is up to it, they could surprise in the West. The home slate features Western Michigan and Northern Illinois, so the opportunities are there for the Rockets to make a move in the division.

5.) Ball State - Remember last year's dream season? Undefeated regular season? GMAC Bowl appearance? Yeah, that's all gone. Along with QB Nate Davis and head coach Brady Hoke (now at San Diego State). New coach Stan Parrish should have a solid defense, led by four returning starters on the defensive line. Safeties Alex Knipp and Sean Baker will lead the secondary, but the linebackers are mostly new, though talented. Offensively, the Cardinals must rebuild. The line only returns 1 starter, QB Kelly Page is a freshman, and the wide receivers have several new faces. RB MiQuale Lewis, fresh off a 1,736-yard, 22 TD season must produce early and often for Ball State to have any chance of success. The schedule is tough, which only adds to BSU's woes. Making a bowl game would be a minor miracle in Muncie.

6.) Eastern Michigan - This should be interesting. Ron English begins his first year as head coach with a lot of returning starters, but not much talent. The offense somehow put up over 50 points in each of its final two games last season, but still managed to lose one (and gave up 52 in the win). QB Andy Schmitt provides a nice building block for the offense after throwing for 15 TDs in 2008. RB Terrence Blevins rushed for 12 TDs and should once again have a featured role in the offense. Four-fifths of the offensive line returns, so the Eages may be able to score some points. Defensively, EMU is a mess. Yes, 8 starters return, but when you're ranked 109th in scoring defense, is that a good thing? Regardless, English will have his hands full molding this group, but should feature a talented linebacking corps, led by Andre Hatchett and Jermaine Jenkins. If this unit gives up less than 370 yards per game, that would be quite the accomplishment. The schedule features Kent State and Ball State at home, so the opportunity to take a few games in the conference is there...just not enough to make a bowl.

Disappointing Team: Akron

Surprise Team:
Northern Illinois

Top Players:
QB Dan LeFevour, Central Michigan; QB Tim Hiller, Western Michigan; RB MiQuale Lewis, Ball State; LB Nick Bellore, Central Michigan; DL Andre Neblett, Temple

Players to Keep An Eye On:
RB Willie Geter, Bowling Green; RB DeVoe Torrence, Akron; DE Justin Braska, Western Michigan; RB Me'co Brown, Northern Illinois; QB Zach Maynard, Buffalo

Key Games:
Central Michigan at Western Michigan, October 17th; Akron at Buffalo, October 17th; Bowling Green at Buffalo, November 3rd; Akron at Bowling Green, November 20th; Northern Illinois at Central Michigan, November 27th

Coolest Jerseys:
Northern Illinois Huskies

~~ Lank

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