College Football Preview: Big Ten

Despite losing pretty much every BCS game they go to, the Big Ten is a lot better than you think. There are worse things than losing every year in the Rose Bowl to USC. Ohio State went on a nice run for a couple years earlier in the decade, but have lost their last three BCS games. However, the fact remains that the Big Ten consistently puts competitive teams in the Top 10 and plays well against the other BCS conferences. Recently, Penn State and Ohio State have had a stranglehold on the conference, and this year should be no different. The rest of the standings could go in a lot of different directions, dependent on a few key matchups. As always, most of the Big Ten games should end 17-13 with fewer than 200 yards passing for one of the quarterbacks involved. We tease because we love; as a native Midwesterner, I have nothing but love for the Big Ten.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.) Ohio State - Call this a leap of faith choice. Even though the Buckeyes are in the Top 10 of every preseason poll, they have some rebuilding to do. QB Terrelle Pryor is a stud and showed the talent last season as a freshman that made him one of the most sought-after recruits in recent memory. He will have to carry the offense early as the Buckeyes look to replace Beanie Wells at RB, both starting WRs, and both kickers. The offensive line should be strong, so Pryor has that going for him, but the biggest boost may come from RB Daniel Herron, a playmaker in waiting. WRs Dane Sanzenbacher, a Big Ten name of the year nominee, and DeVier Posey will need to contribute early and often to make the Ohio State offense hum. Defensively, OSU needs to replace their entire linebacking corps from last year, but return pretty much everyone else. DEs Thaddeus Gibson and Cameron Heyward will be great this year, and the front four as a whole should be a strong point. The linebackers are new, as mentioned, but talented. Keep an eye on Etienne Sabino, a sophomore who may wind up starting by the end of the year. The secondary is very good, led by SS Kurt Coleman. The Buckeyes have a very favorable conference schedule, with road games against Indiana, Purdue, and Michigan. The trip to Happy Valley will be the game that defines the season, despite what Buckeye fans who want revenge on USC would have you think.

2.) Penn State - I wanted to put the Nittany Lions lower than 2nd, but couldn't find anyone to take their place. Sure, stud QB Darryl Clark returns, as does leading RB Evan Royster. However, only 2 starters return to the offensive line and the bulk of the receiving corps is brand new. That's not to say that Penn State will be bad on offense, but they'll certainly need to come together quickly if they are to keep pace with Ohio State. Look for WRs Brett Brackett and Derek Moye to become Clark's go-to targets in time. Clark's mobility will also ease the growing pains of the new offensive line. On defense, the Nittany Lions will be looking for pass rush. The DEs are inexperienced, as is the entire secondary. LBs Navorro Bowman and Sean Lee should be outstanding, but will need help to raise the defense's play to the highest level. CB A.J. Wallace is a senior with some experience, and should become the leader of the defensive backs. Penn State's schedule is quite favorable. The non-conference slate is a joke and the games against Iowa and Ohio State are in State College. The toughest road game is at Michigan State, but that doesn't come until the last week of the season when the Nittany Lions should be fully developed on both sides of the ball.

3.) Michigan State - Here's the deal for the Spartans: find a consistent quarterback, and you might be on to something. With 6 starters returning on offense and 8 on defense, Michigan State has a great chance to surprise in the Big Ten. QB Kirk Cousins appears to be the opening day starter, and will have to grow up quickly. Games 3 and 4 are road games against Notre Dame and Wisconsin, respectively, and Michigan State needs to win both of those to get the season started off properly. Cousins has a good arm and decent mobility, and if he can develop a rapport with WRs Keshawn Martin and Mark Dell early, the offense could be better than last year. Do-everything RB Javon Ringer is now in the NFL, so it's up to Ashton Leggett and Andre Anderson to carry the mail. The offensive line returns mostly intact, so that will help the new players get acclimated. On defense, the Spartans will be very good. DLs Trevor Anderson and Oren Wilson anchor a good line, but the linebackers are the stars here. LB Greg Jones made the All-Big Ten team last year and Eric Gordon is a very talented player as well. The secondary returns 3 starters, and 8 guys total who have starting experience. Look for this unit to be very stingy this season. The schedule sets up well for MSU. Ohio State isn't on it, for one; and the road games in conference are at Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, and Purdue. If the Spartans can shake their flaky DNA, a Rose Bowl run isn't out of the question. Just beat Penn State in East Lansing to end the season.

4.) Illinois - I like the makeup of this Illini team. Coach Ron Zook has assembled a boatload of talent on offense, and Illinois should have very little trouble scoring points. QB Juice Williams is back as the starter despite a shaky 2008 season. His dual-threat capability is unquestioned, but he needs to become more consistent week in and week out. WRs Arrelious Benn and Jarred Fayson, a Florida transfer, should be one of the top receiving duos in the conference. Expect Williams to rack up big passing numbers with these guys. TE Michael Hoomanawanui is a definite Big Ten name of the year nominee. RBs Jason Ford and Daniel Dufrene will battle all season for carries unless one emerges as the go-to guy. 3 starters return on the offensive line, so expect the Illini to score early and often from day one. Defensively, only 4 starters return, but the talent is in place for a strong unit. DE Doug Pilcher is the leader of the line and should rack up many tackles for loss this season. The linebackers are all fast, but Martez Wilson stands out. The season will be a success if he leads the team in tackles. The secondary is young, but the skills are there. CBs Dere Hicks and Travon Bellamy are returning starters, but Hicks is the only senior in the rotation. The schedule is front-loaded, for sure. Games 3-5 read like this: at Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State. Those are three tough games that will decide Illinois' standing in the conference, but at least two of them are at home. After that, it's smooth sailing, so we'll know early on what to make of the Illini.

5.) Iowa - Talent-wise, Iowa is probably the third-best team in the Big Ten. But this is a lesson in how much a schedule affects expectations. Sure, RB Shonn Greene did everything for the Iowa offense last year, but his departure doesn't leave the Hawkeyes completely barren. QB Ricky Stanzi, finally the unquestioned starter, has shown the poise and presence necessary to lead the offense. If he can continue to throw well to WRs Trey Stross and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, the offense will be better than people think. RB Jewel Hampton, a Big Ten name of the year nominee, is very skilled and should be able to adequately replace Greene, though it'll take help from backup Jeff Brinson to truly compensate for the loss of Greene. The offensive line is great and should lift the play of everyone around them. On defense, the line must find two new replacements at defensive tackle. Easing the blow is the presence of DEs Adrian Clayborn and Christian Ballard. LBs Jeremiha Hunter, Pat Angerer, and A.J. Edds are all returning starters and will be very productive this year. Look for a lot of tackles from this trio. The secondary returns 3 starters, and is led by CB Amari Spievey, a candidate for All-Big Ten honors this season. Returning safeties Tyler Sash and Brett Greenwood provide stability at the position. The schedule, as I mentioned before, is a nightmare. Road trips to Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan State are as tough as they get in the conference, and the rivalry game against Wisconsin is also on the road. Ouch.

6.) Wisconsin - Coach Bret Bielema is feeling some heat because his win totals have gone from 12 to 9 to 7 in his three years on the job. Inconsistent quarterback play has killed the Badgers, and they desperately need QB Dustin Sherer to reverse that trend. If he can play well and provide Wisconsin with some semblance of a passing game, the Badgers will surprise. RBs John Clay and Zach Brown provide a terrific one-two punch and, running behind a talented, if young, offensive line, they should combine for close to 2,000 yards...if not more. WRs David Gilreath and Kyle Jefferson are quality targets who should make some plays for Sherer this season. On defense, Wisconsin returns 5 starters, but must replace a lot of their front seven. DE O'Brien Schofield will be the leader of the line, but DT J.J. Watt should be the most talented player. LBs Blake Sorensen and Jaevery McFadden are tackling machines that should make plays all year long. The secondary is in good hands with CB Niles Brinkley and S Jay Valai manning the position. Wisconsin's schedule is manageable. The road game at Ohio State is no fun, but Minnesota, Indiana, and Northwestern aren't too imposing as road trips. Plus, there's always the fun trip to Hawaii at the end of the year to boost morale.

7.) Northwestern - I like Pat Fitzgerald. Since taking over in the wake of the Randy Walker tragedy, he's been great for the university and football program. Last year's 9-4 record is indicative of what he's building in Evanston. However, I don't think this year's Wildcats have the horses to get up the hill. 4 starters return on offense...but they're all offensive linemen. QB Mike Kafka has starting experience, but lacks the consistent passing threat keep the offense moving. His running ability provides a nice change of pace, though. RB Stephen Simmons is also new, but will probably share carries with Jeravin Matthews. WRs Jeremy Ebert, Andrew Brewer, and Sidney Stewart are inexperienced but provide an intriguing group of targets for Kafka. This group should be solid by the end of the season. On defense, Fitzgerald's specialty, 8 starters return. After finishing 2008 26th in scoring defense, expect this group to excel. DE Corey Wootton is the star on the outside; look for him to rack up plenty of sacks. LBs Nate Williams and Quentin Davie are adequate, but neither will likely lead the team in tackles. The secondary returns all four starters and should be the strength of this defense. FS Brad Phillips is a tackling machine from the safety position, providing run support as well as passing defense. The good news about Northwestern's schedule is that Ohio State isn't on it. The bad news is that road games against Iowa and Michigan State, as well as a home date with Penn State, provide bad matchups for the Wildcats. Another bowl should be in order, however; and that's never a bad thing in Evanston.

8.) Michigan - Rich Rodriguez has a knack for improving teams in year two. In his second year at Michigan, he'll need one of his freshman quarterbacks to emerge and lead the offense. QBs Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson, both freshmen, will split snaps until one guy proves he's the man for the job. Forcier is the better passer; Robinson the better runner. RB Brandon Minor is a talented back who should get the bulk of the carries. But Carlos Brown has also shown some ability and may get a few totes of his own. WRs Greg Matthews and Martavious Odoms are experienced, but are not gamebreakers. The offensive line returns 4 starters, which is a huge boost to the development of the freshmen QBs. On defense, Michigan returns 5 starters, but the unit wasn't very good last year. DE Brandon Graham is a good one, but is the only returning starter on the line. LBs Stevie Brown, Obi Ezeh, and Jonas Mouton are a solid group, with Ezeh leading the team in tackles last year. The secondary is basically new, but CB Donovan Warren is someone around whom the group can build. Ohio State visits Ann Arbor this season, but the home games against Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, and Delaware State are more important to win in terms of making a bowl. Six wins will do the trick, but six wins will be hard to come by for a group that figures to be much better in 2010.

9.) Minnesota - The Golden Gophers were kind of a sham last year. There, I said it. After starting 7-1 and getting the Twin Cities jacked up, they lost five games in a row when they had to play teams with a pulse. Beating Indiana is fun and all, but try beating Wisconsin and then we'll chat. QB Adam Weber returns, as does his favorite target, WR Eric Decker. That alone is good news for the passing game. The Weber-to-Decker show, when on, is something to behold. RBs DeLeon Eskridge, a Big Ten name of the year nominee, and Duane Bennett should alternate carries and give the Gophers some semblance of a running game -- something that was missing last season. If the line comes together early, Minnesota could score points by the bushel. Defensively, the Gophers have a new coordinator, but 7 starters returning from a surprisingly effective group last year. DTs Eric Small and Garrett Brown should stuff the run, but a pass rush must be established. LB Lee Campbell led the team in tackles last year and should do so again this year. The secondary caused a lot of turnovers last season and should do so again this year with 3 starters back. CB Traye Simmons is an interception machine. Road games at Ohio State, Penn State, Northwestern, and Iowa are tough; but the home games against Illinois and Michigan State are going to be the reason that Minnesota misses a bowl game in 2009 before rebounding next year.

10.) Purdue - Talk about a transition year. After an awkward year as coach-in-waiting, Danny Hope takes over for the departed Joe Tiller. Tiller liked to sling that pigskin, and Hope will throw a lot as well, but will attempt to incorporate more of a running game. RB Jaycen Taylor should get the bulk of the carries, and has been productive in the past. QB is a question mark with the graduation of Curtis Painter, but senior Joey Elliott will begin the year as the starter. He's had limited reps in his career and will not be a game-changer, to say the least. The wide receivers are also brand new, so the passing game may take a few games to click. The defense must carry the mail until the offense comes around, and the Boilermakers have the talent to do that. DLs Ryan Kerrigan and Mike Neal comprise a nice duo up front and should produce at a high level. The linebackers are mostly new, but should be solid. The secondary returns 3 starters and will be very tough to throw against. CBs David Pender and Brandon King will make things hard for opposing receivers. Purdue doesn't play Penn State, but faces both Ohio State and Michigan State in West Lafayette. Holding serve at home will be tough, and the road contests against Minnesota and Michigan must be wins if the Boilers have any chance to go bowling.

11.) Indiana - I love the Hoosiers, but even I know that this is going to be a long year in Bloomington. There isn't much talent on offense, which will put a lot of pressure on a shaky defense. Not good. QB Ben Chappell threw for 1,000 yards last year in limited duty, so at least he has some experience to rely on. WRs Terrance Turner and Tandon Doss should put up good numbers this year as long as they can get on the same page as Chappell. RB Darius Willis was a big-time recruit for Indiana, and will probably start as a freshman. His talent trumps any experience that returning players may have. On defense, DEs Greg Middleton and Jammie Kirlew are a very good duo and should rack up the tackles for loss this year. LBs Will Patterson and Matt Mayberry provide plenty of tackles and, if the interior line doesn't improve, will be called on to do so again. The secondary is surprisingly deep. FS Nick Polk is a stud and CBs Chris Adkins and Ray Fisher are more than adequate. Indiana's schedule features road games against Iowa, Northwestern, Michigan, and Penn State. I'm trying to find a way to get the Hoosiers to make an unexpected trip to a bowl game, but it's just not happening. Maybe next year.

Disappointing Team: Iowa

Surprise Team: Illinois

Top Players: QB Terrelle Pryor, Ohio State; QB Darryl Clark, Penn State; WR Arrelious Benn, Illinois; WR Eric Decker, Minnesota; LB Sean Lee, Penn State

Players to Keep An Eye On: QB Juice Williams, Illinois; RB Jewel Hampton, Iowa; QB Kirk Cousins, Michigan State; RB Daniel Herron, Ohio State; QB Tate Forcier/Denard Robinson, Michigan

Key Games: Penn State at Illinois, October 3rd; Iowa at Michigan State, October 24th; Ohio State at Penn State, November 7th; Iowa at Ohio State, November 14th; Penn State at Michigan State, November 21st;

Coolest Jerseys: Iowa Hawkeyes

~~ Lank