College Football Preview: Sun Belt Conference

Ah, the Sun Belt Conference. Home to small crowds, very little NFL talent, and nine teams that your friends couldn't name if you gave them a week to do so. But don't get it twisted; these teams put on a good show and almost always leave the conference title race undecided until the very last game has been played. Expect the same thing to happen again this year, as Arkansas State, Troy, and Florida Atlantic battle for conference supremacy and the right to go to the New Orleans bowl at the end of the season.

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.) Troy - A quick glance at their record last year (8-5), and you're probably not impressed. However, when you consider that four of their losses were to Ohio State, Oklahoma State, LSU, and Southern Miss (in OT in the New Orleans Bowl), you realize that the Trojans had a very good season. As a matter of fact, last year's Troy team was one of the best in the history of the Sun Belt Conference. They'll be the class of the conference again, as senior QB Levi Brown and junior RB DuJuan Harris will combine to put up great numbers. Brown had 15 TDs to only 3 INTs last season, and Harris averaged over 5 yards per carry. With the bulk of their offensive line returning and two returning starters at wide receiver, expect the offense to shine again for the Trojans. Defensively, Troy showcases the best linebacker corps in the conference, led by first-team all-conference performer Boris Lee. Flanking Lee at weakside linebacker is a guy with one of the best names in the Sun Belt, Bear Woods. If you have a guy named Bear Woods on your team, you're probably going to be just fine. Defensive ends Brandon Lang and Cameron Sheffield are the best outside rush tandem in the conference, and will be putting the heat on opposing quarterbacks all season long. Games at Florida and at Arkansas are, basically, unwinnable, but other than that, the schedule sets up nicely for Troy. They go on the road to Arkansas State, but do so early, which benefits the Trojans. UL-Monroe and Florida Atlantic both travel to Movie Gallery Stadium, so by the time Troy visits UL-Lafayette to end the season, the conference race may have already been decided.

2.) Florida Atlantic - The Owls are an interesting bunch. After going 6-1 to win the Sun Belt in 2007, they regressed to 4-3 last year despite having pretty much the same cast of characters. The defense didn't perform up to par, and the offense couldn't get going until mid-way through the season. Now, the offense appears to be ready to break out for 12 games while the defense is going to be playing catch-up. Only 3 starters return to a defensive unit that ranked 92nd in total defense last year. Maybe that's a good thing; some new blood might be just what the doctor ordered. The linebacking unit is as inexperienced as any in America, but features a potential playmaker in Ed Bradwell and another candidate for best name in the Sun Belt, Yourhighness Morgan. I hope he blows up like Hannah Montana so that I can write post after post about a guy named Yourhighness. On the other side of the ball, the Owls are going to score. Senior QB Rusty Smith will hook up with senior WR Cortez Gent over and over again. And then will do it some more. Smith totaled more than 3,000 yards through the air last year and is a threat to top 3,500 this season. The entire left side of the offensive line returns, meaning Smith's blindside will be protected. The running game is unproven, but junior RB Willie Floyd will look to replace 1,000-yard rusher Charles Pierre, who graduated after last season. Florida Atlantic's schedule is pretty tough. They start out at Nebraska and at South Carolina, which should be two losses. Next is their first conference game, at home against UL-Monroe. The Owl defense will not yet have jelled, meaning the offense will need to put up a big number to win. If they're up to it, things may take off from there. The November 21st game at Troy will likely decide the conference champion, so if the Owls have everything together by then, they could make a return trip to New Orleans in December.

3.) Middle Tennessee State - Call the Blue Raiders this year's "team to watch" in the Sun Belt. They have a boatload of talent returning, a fresh new offensive approach thanks to the hiring of Tony Franklin, who was offensive coordinator at Auburn last year and held the same role at Troy several years before that, as offensive coordinator, and a hunger to finally win the conference after years of coming close. 8 starters return on offense and 6 return on defense, which means MTSU should be solid all around. The X-factor for this team is QB Dwight Dasher, whose name is fitting. After leading the team in rushing in 2007, the fleet-footed Dasher lost his confidence last year and ended up on the bench. Now returning to the helm as a battle-tested junior, look for his numbers to improve in the wide-open system of Franklin. There are plenty of options for him to throw to, with Patrick Honeycutt, Malcolm Beyah, and Eldred King all proving to be solid receivers. Defensively, the Blue Raiders are relying on stud LB Danny Carmichael to lead new starters on each side of him. The line returns several good players and the secondary is one of the top units in the conference, but in order for the defense to really take off, Carmichael's linebacker mates must produce. The schedule sets up beautifully for Middle Tennessee. They play four games before having to travel to Troy, which means their defense should be caught up by then and the offense should be in a rhythm. That trip will dictate how the season goes for the Blue Raiders. If they win, they should be favored in the rest of their conference games, save for the Halloween trip to Florida Atlantic. However, splitting the road games against the Owls and Trojans while taking care of business at home would do wonders for their title aspirations.

4.) Arkansas State - Sorry to disappoint you, Cousin Brooke, but your Red Wolves are unlikely to get up the hill this year. They have the best backfield in the conference, in QB Corey Leonard and RB Reggie Arnold, but having to rebuild their offensive line will prove too difficult a task to win the Sun Belt. The Red Wolves feature a great running attack (including Leonard, who is a threat to run as well as pass), and limit their turnovers. Their ball-control offense is well-suited to their personnel and should produce an efficient unit this season. However, losing two all-conference tackles from last year's team will be the downfall for ASU. On the defensive side of the ball, the Red Wolves feature a very strong unit that returns 8 starters. 38th last year in total defense, look for Arkansas State to be very stingy. The star is DE Alex Carrington, who's a preseason nominee for the Lott Trophy, which goes to the nation's best defensive player. Three returning starters in the secondary mean that teams won't be able to simply throw away from Carrington's pressure. The schedule is tough, though. Early games against Troy and at UL-Monroe in addition to back-to-back roads games at Florida Atlantic and Middle Tennessee will be tough to overcome, preventing the Red Wolves from winning the Sun Belt.

5.) UL-Monroe - It's never a good sign when your coach is forced to overhaul is staff, but that's exactly what happened this offseason for UL-Monroe. Coach Charlie Weatherbie brought in six new assistants in an attempt to resuscitate the program. 7 starters return to an offense that is looking to pick up the pace this season. New QB Trey Revell will run the no-huddle, throwing to experienced receivers Anthony McCall and J.J. McCoy. Frank Goodin returns at RB after rushing for 783 yards last year. Defensively, the Warhawks need to find a way to stop the run. Surrendering 213 yards per game on the ground, as they did last season, simply isnt' going to get it done. Cardia Jackson and Josh Thomas lead an experienced linebacking corps, which should help limit the damage. Throw in a returning pair of defensive tackles in Aaron Williams and Aaron Morgan, and things might not be so bad against the run this year. UL-Monroe has a manageable slate in 2009. Road games to conference favorites Troy and Florida Atlantic are a month apart, and the Warhawks host Middle Tennessee and Arkansas State. If they defend their home turf and pull an upset on the road, they can sneak into the top three in the Sun Belt.

6.) UL-Lafayette - Here's a situation where we find out if a good offensive line and new skill players is better than having good skill players and a new offensive line. Top passer Michael Desormeaux, top receiver Jason Chery, and top rusher Tyrell Fenroy are gone, but most of the other pieces of the offense remain, including the entire offensive line. Sophomore Brad McGuire looks to fill in for Desormeaux, and did so with a victory last year in the one game that Desormeaux missed with an injury. The running game is unsettled, but will probably feature Undrea Sails, a senior with experience. On defense, the Ragin' Cajuns left a lot to be desired last year. Some of it can be chalked up to the rash of injuries that hit the unit, but lackluster play was just as much of a culprit. With 7 starters returning, including 3 each on the line and in the secondary, they have to be better at stopping the run. If they can do that, they may be able to ride the offense's coattails to a surprising finish in the conference. The schedule is brutal and does the Cajuns no favors. A backloaded slate features consecutive road games at Florida International, Arkansas State, and Middle Tennessee. As if that weren't enough, the next two games are at home, but are against UL-Monroe and Troy. Good luck, Lafayette, you're going to need it.

7.) Florida International - Give head coach Mario Cristobal credit. He took over at FIU when it was in shambles, and has breathed new life into the program. Fresh off a better-than-you-think 5-7 campaign, the Golden Panthers are looking to reach the next step: a bowl game. Offensively, there's no doubt FIU is talented enough to break through. However, a defense that only returns 5 starters, including none on the defensive line, will prove to be problematic. Scott Bryant leads a very solid, deep group of linebackers that will have to compensate for a lack of production from an inexperienced line. The secondary, led by junior CB Anthony Gaitor (shouldn't he be playing at Florida?) will be very good and should limit the passing options of opposing offenses. Speaking of offense, look for the Golden Panthers to do most of their work through the air. Featuring a spread offense similar to that of Purdue, QB Paul McCall will sling the ball all over the lot to his deep, talented receiving corps. Junior Mertile, Greg Ellingson, and Sun Belt name of the year nominee T.Y. Hilton will be catching plenty of balls and scoring plenty of touchdowns all season long. FIU's chances of doing well in conference will be decided in a two-game stretch in October, when they host Troy and then travel to Arkansas State. A split would be nice, but losing both is more realistic.

8.) North Texas - When Todd Dodge was hired as head coach three seasons ago from Carroll Southlake High School, most saw it as an experimental move. Could the coach who was peerless at the high school level win big in college as well? Short answer: no. Dodge's offenses have been rather prolific at UNT, but the defenses have been downright embarrassing. Look for that trend to continue in 2009. The Mean Green will feature a true freshman at QB this season, Riley Dodge, coach Todd Dodge's son. He comes in with a great pedigree, but will have very little around him to work with. The receiving corps is young and will not give him much assistance. The good news is that the line returns intact, so Dodge won't have to worry about getting killed in the middle of a throw...too often. The defense will be terrible again, mainly because 8 guys are back from last year's unit, and they were terrible. Until they start giving up less than 483 yards per game, as they did in 2008, the Mean Green will go nowhere. The schedule is tough, having to travel to Troy, Florida International, and Arkansas State. Winning a single game would be an accomplishment for this team, which is why it's important that they host Western Kentucky this year.

9.) Western Kentucky - Welcome to D1-A, Hilltoppers; it's nice to have you. Though WKU began their transition into the highest level of college football a couple of years ago, they are just now officially included. The Hilltoppers enjoyed much success at the D1-AA level, and are looking to transfer that to their new conference. Unfortunately, there isn't much talent on the roster, and it will take a few years for them to get their head above water. The quarterback will be new, most likely senior Brandon Smith, and the running game uninspiring, though seniors Marell Booker and Tyrell Hayden boast lots of experience. The receiving corps is the strength of the offense, led by senior Jake Gaebler and Sun Belt name of the year nominee Quinterrance Cooper. On defense, Western Kentucky returns only 3 starters from a unit that wasn't terrible last year. The linebackers will be a strength as Blake Boyd and Darvis McBride should provide steady production. The line must be rebuilt and the secondary doesn't feature much experience. If it mattered, the schedule goes WKU's way. Most of the conference heavyweights must go to Bowling Green (not to be confused with Bowling Green, Ohio, home of the MAC's Falcons), but their only seemingly winnable conference game is against North Texas, and that's on the road. Maybe next year, Hilltoppers.

Disappointing Team: UL-Monroe

Surprise Team: Middle Tennessee State

Top Players: QB Corey Leonard, Arkansas State; WR T.Y. Hilton, Florida International; DE Alex Carrington, Arkansas State; LB Boris Lee, Troy; CB Anthony Gaitor; Florida International

Players to Keep an Eye On: QB Brad McGuire, UL-Lafayette; LB Bear Woods, Troy; QB Dwight Dasher, Middle Tennessee State; RB Willie Floyd, Florida Atlantic; CB Tavious Polo, Florida Atlantic

Key Games: Troy at Arkansas State, September 26th; Arkansas State at Florida Atlantic, November 14th; Florida Atlantic at Troy, November 21st; Arkansas State at Middle Tennessee State, November 21st; Florida Atlantic at Florida International, December 5th

Coolest Jerseys: Florida International Golden Panthers

~~ Lank