The New York Yankees have a problem. A very expensive one. Over the next 8.5 seasons, they owe Alex Rodriguez the remainder of the 10-year, $275 million contract that he negotiated for himself before the beginning of the 2008 season. I don't know the exact structure of the deal, but we'll pretend it's distributed evenly over the duration of the deal; meaning the Yankees owe him $220 million plus the $13+ million that he'll get for the rest of this year.
Oh, and did I mention that the guy is turning 34 at the end of this month, coming off of hip surgery (and will require further surgery after the season) and batting .246 this year? Ouch.
From the outset, the contract was ridiculous. Even before the PED allegations, the weird photo shoot for Vanity Fair, and his personal life going to hell in a handbasket. Think about it, the Yankees signed a guy who was turning 33 the next season to a TEN YEAR CONTRACT WORTH $275 MILLION. So, New York, you're telling me that a 40-year-old Alex Rodriguez is going to be worth $27.5 million? Really? You honestly thought he wouldn't decline by then? What foresight.
Don't get me wrong here, A-Rod is great. He's one of the 5 best players of my generation (along with Bonds, Griffey, Pujols, and Manny). I fully expect him to get his legs back under him and hit in the .280 range by the end of the season. His power numbers will be fine (relative to the number of games he plays, that is), and he'll end up having a good year; he's just that talented. But there's no defending inking him, or any player for that matter, to a decade-long deal once he's already in his 30s.
In case you're wondering, the money is guaranteed. No out clause here.
So, what will the Yankees do with him? They can't trade him, because nobody will want him at that price. They can't release him, because they're contractually obligated to pay him the full value of the deal. They can't bench him, because they'd have to pay for another third baseman to take his spot, and I doubt they'd find somebody playing for the league minimum who could produce like him, even at age 38. Basically, they're going to have to suck it up and hope he isn't falling all over himself in the latter stages of the deal. As long as he puts up .280/30/110, or thereabouts, I think they can stomach that. Yes, it's a far cry from his 2007 year of .314/54/156 (which just so happened to be the year before he negotiated the contract), but it's solid enough that you don't look completely stupid for paying him that much.
Only a little bit stupid. Ok, a lot.
Will he produce those numbers at an advanced age? No, of course not. Only Manny Ramirez came close to continuing his early-30s production into his late-30s, and he was juicing. Think about it, we're in Year 2 of the contract, and it's already looking like a shaky proposition. Can you imagine what the furor is gonna look like in the the Big Apple when he's 39 years old, hitting .212 and getting paid $27.5 million for it? My goodness.
But at least there's hope for Alex: maybe by then, people will be more concerned with 400-lb. CC Sabathia not being able to make it to the sixth inning in any of his starts. Gotta love the Yankees.
~~ Lank
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