It's mid-July now. The All-Star Game has come and gone (the American League won again...shocker). The trade deadline is rapidly approaching (will Halladay be traded or won't he). And the playoff races are slowly beginning to take shape. Sure, nobody can truly be eliminated in mid-July and nobody can be crowned division champ so early, but there have been enough games now to know who's for real and who's living on borrowed time.
With that, Skip To My Lank investigates the Division and Wild Card races for your reading pleasure...
American League:
East - Boston's got an abundance of pitching, New York has an abundance of hitting, and Tampa Bay has an abundance of...well, we're not sure yet. With all of the injuries they've suffered, the Rays are still a question mark. We know what they can do based on their American League-winning performance in 2008, but we've yet to see all the pieces come together this season. As of this writing, they're 4.5 games out, and I don't see them ever being whole enough to overtake the Yankees or Red Sox. So, it comes down to Boston and New York yet again. Who gets the edge? I say Boston. Their starting rotation has been great this year (and that doesn't even count Clay Buchholz, who only gets spot starts) and the bullpen, with the recent play of Daniel Bard, is beginning to take form. Despite spending a boatload of cash in the offseason for CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, the Yankees have been shaky in the pitching department. If Sabathia is up to his old second-half tricks, Burnett settles into a consistent pattern, and Joba Chamberlain continues his recent successes, the Yankees have a chance. But for now, give them the Wild Card over Tampa Bay, and give the AL East to Boston.
Central - Here's a fun one. Detroit, Chicago, and Minnesota are all within 2 games of one another, and I have no idea who's going to win. Detroit's starting pitching has been lights out, but their bullpen and lineup have been up-and-down. Can Edwin Jackson continue to be great? Will 20-year-old Rick Porcello begin to show his age? Will Justin Verlander keep pitching like an ace? If the Tigers can answer "yes, no, yes" to these questions, they just might win it. However, Chicago has a weird intangible about their team that I can't ignore. With only one All-Star (Mark Buehrle), they have a bunch of scrappy guys who play a lot of close games. We're 92 games into the season, and their run differential for the year is ZERO. That's absurd. I don't think they can continue to live so close to the edge...but maybe I'm crazy. Minnesota probably has the best talent of the three teams in the race, but their pitching continues to be shaky. Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau give them two legit MVP candidates, and Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel are solid producers. If Nick Blackburn, Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, and company can provide enough quality starts to get to the automatic Joe Nathan at the end of games, the Twins will be fine. As the season has shown, however, that's a big if.
West - This has to be Anaheim, right? Yeah, the Rangers are fun and plucky, and the Mariners continue to hang around, but Anaheim's just better than them...I think. The sad event involving Nick Adenhart earlier this year threw the Angels into a tailspin, but recently they've steadied th ship, and Torii Hunter now leads a relatively potent offense that gets better by the day. Kendry Morales has been a surprise for them, and Bobby Abreu has been solid, so I look for Anaheim to hold off Seattle and Texas. My boy Josh Hamilton recently returned to the Rangers, but it may not be enough. Their second-best pitcher is Vicente Padilla, and I just don't trust that. As always, the Rangers will probably score 800 runs and it won't matter. Kevin Millwood has been great this year, but I don't see the pitching depth needed to play deep into October. The Mariners have gotten a career year from Russell Branyan, a standard (read: great) year from Ichiro, and solid pitching from Felix Hernandez and Jarrod Washburn, but they play too many close games to win the division. Eventually, those one-run games are gonna stop going your way. That's just mathematics.
National League:
East - The hotter-than-a-five-dollar-pistol Phillies are starting to distance themselves from the field. New York has been held back by injuries, Florida is held back by inexperience, and Atlanta is held back by a lack of talent. Despite their pitching woes, Philadelphia can still rely on their offense to produce big numbers (especially now that Raul Ibanez is back). If they somehow get Roy Halladay, this division is pretty much curtains...and it may be anyway. Unless Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, and Jose Reyes come back soon (and I mean really soon), the Mets are screwed. Their pitching is atrocious, their second-teamers aren't hitting enough, and the gap between them and the Phillies continues to grow by the day. I included Atlanta and Florida to be nice, but their inability to get firmly above .500 is going to do them in. Each team is too streaky to be taken seriously, and as they continue to go 5-5 every 10 games, Philly is going 7-3 and expanding their lead. It's a game of streaks, boys.
Central - Heart or head? Heart of head? My heart is with the St. Louis Cardinals, because that's my dad's favorite team. My head is with...well, St. Louis! Great, this can work out after all. The Cardinals, Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, Houston Astros, and Cincinnati Reds are all within 5 games, but it's essentially a three-team race. St. Louis, Chicago, and Milwaukee are the class of this division and will be battling out until October 4th. I've chosen the Cardinals to win the division because they have Albert Pujols and nobody else does. The guy is simply unbelievable. Throw in the fact that they've got the best starting pitching in the division, and the NL Central should be theirs. Chicago has too many headaches and chemistry problems to worry about (not to mention Geovany Soto and Kosuke Fukudome not hitting), and won't be able to overcome that. Milwaukee has a tremendous lineup led by Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, but the starting pitching just isn't there outside of Yovani Gallardo, the young wonder.
West - Dodgers. Dodgers. Dodgers. Yes, their rotation is pretty thin, but they've built up such a big lead (8 games) that it won't matter. They did a wonderful job of holding down the fort while Manny was suspended, and now they're in a position to begin tweaking things for the playoffs. As long as the young duo of Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw continue to be great, Los Angeles will have no problem winning this division. A consolation prize for the San Francisco Giants will be the NL Wild Card. Their rotation of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Barry Zito, Randy Johnson, and Jonathan Sanchez (yes, he's inconsistent, but he did throw the only no-hitter this season) will make up for their lackluster offense. It's not hard to win a bunch of 3-2 games when you have starting pitching like that.
So there you have it, the way things will shake out in each division the rest of this baseball season. Just for kicks, I polled a few friends of Skip To My Lank to get their thoughts on midseason World Series predictions. Whose do you like best?
Skip: Boston Red Sox over Philadelphia Phillies
Lank: Boston Red Sox over Philadelphia Phillies
Big Brother: Philadelphia Phillies over Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Willie P: St. Louis Cardinals over Boston Red Sox
Baseball Mom: Los Angeles Dodgers over Detroit Tigers
~~ Lank
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