College Football Preview: Pac-10

The Pac-10, much like the WAC (what is it with these western conferences?), has an image problem. People think of it as 'USC and 9 other schools' when it comes to football. Yes, the schools are big time universities that are beautifully aligned in five pairs, but there isn't much name recognition outside of USC. Cal? Umm, they have protesters at their stadium and usually win about 8 games. Oregon? Man, those jerseys sure are sweet, but I don't think they're a threat. UCLA? Wait, didn't they make the Final Four a few years ago? Despite winning all of their bowl games last season, the Pac-10 is still looking for a breakout year on the national scene. Will this be it?

Predicted Order of Finish:
1.) USC - Normally, prognosticators outsmart themselves by picking the new "hot team" to dethrone the Trojans in the Pac-10. This season, however, there may be some logic to it. The open quarterback race to succeed Mark Sanchez was won by a true freshman, Matt Barkley. Yes, Barkley is wondrously gifted and mature beyond his years...but he's still a true freshman. The guy is 18 years old. Prone to interceptions in high school, look for Barkley to wow you one minute with his NFL arm (yes, already), and then make you shake your head the next minute when he tries to force the ball into double coverage. Think Matt Stafford v2.0. Barkley's biggest asset is that his offensive line is superb. C Kristofer O'Dowd and G Jeff Byers lead a group that should keep Barkley upright and allow him plenty of time to make his decisions. Another important factor for Barkley's growth is that his stable of running backs is ridiculously talented. RBs Joe McKnight, Stafon Johnson, and C.J. Gable (my favorite of the crop) would start anywhere else in America. No, really, they would. Former running back Emmanuel Moody had to transfer due to lack of carries. Guess where he went...Florida. Yes, THAT Florida. USC's castoff is going to be the starting running back for the defending national champion. Just thought I'd illustrate my point. McKnight's shiftiness and speed, Johnson's power, and Gable's all-around ability bring something different to the table and make the Trojan running game very versatile. The corps of wideouts is talented, but very little production returns. WR Damian Williams is tremendous and will turn heads from day one. However, WR Ronald Johnson broke his collarbone in practice and is out until mid-October. Starting in his place will be David Ausberry, who's a physical freak but has been unable to make a dent on the stat sheet. His progress is crucial to USC's chances of repeating as conference champs for the 8th time in a row. On defense, the Trojans are missing quite a few familiar faces from last year, but have replaced them with talented players. Gone are LBs Rey Maualuga (I spelled that on my own, thank you), Brian Cushing and Clay Matthews. In are LBs Chris Galippo, Michael Morgan, and Malcolm Smith. All are gifted, but remember the name Michael Morgan. He could be special. The defensive line also lost some starters, but DE Everson Griffen and DT Averell Spicer are ready to be the next dominant Trojan linemen. Griffen is a one-man pass rush. The secondary is as good as they come, despite the loss of CB Shareece Wright due to academics. Safety Taylor Mays is the headliner; a freakish mix of speed and power that could have been playing on Sundays this year had he chosen to. To compensate for the loss of Wright, USC may shift Josh Pinkard back to corner to pair with Kevin Thomas, a very steady player himself. In that case, Will Harris would start at safety. New parts, same machine; a very, very good secondary. The Trojans have a difficult schedule. In addition to the huge game at Ohio State, they must go on the road to California, Notre Dame, and Oregon. But as we all know, USC doesn't lose when it's suppose to; it loses when its mind is wandering after a big game. Hello, road game at Arizona State after the Oregon trip.

2.) Oregon - The Ducks are undergoing a bit of change this season. Gone is head coach Mike Bellotti, now the athletics director. Gone are DB Jairus Byrd and C Max Unger, two team leaders from last year. However, what Oregon is lacking in intangibles and experience, they're making up for it with sheer production. Yes, QB Jeremiah Masoli had a good year last year, leading the Ducks to a 10-win season, but he has room to improve. If he makes a Dennis-Dixon-in-2007-esque leap this year, look out. RB Jeremiah Johnson has moved on, but LeGarrette Blount is more than ready to carry the load. Despite being a backup last year, Blount rushed for 1,002 yards and 17 TDs. Imagine what he'll do with a full workload. Goodness. WRs Jeff Maehl and Jamere Holland are solid, but the position will need to add depth and playmaking ability, possibly with Pac-10 name of the year nominee Lavasier Tuinei. TE Ed Dickson is the go-to receiver and will get a ton of looks this season to help the new receiving corps. The offensive line needs to replace Unger and two others from last season, but should be able to open up plenty of holes for Masoli, Blount, and company to run through. Defensively, Oregon must replace a few playmakers, but return 5 starters that should be good enough to keep other teams off the field while their own offense lights up the scoreboard. DE Will Tukuafu is the lone returning starter to the line and will need to provide steady doses of leadership and pressure to elevate the unit. LBs Spencer Paysinger, Casey Matthews, and Eddie Pleasant form the best trio north of Los Angeles. There is playmaking ability written all over them, and they should produce from jump street. The secondary is a talented group with good ball skills. CBs Walter Thurmond III and Talmadge Jackson III both share tremendous cover ability as well as great suffixes. S T.J. Ward plays a good centerfield and will clean up any messes left by the new starters. The Ducks have a very favorable schedule. USC, Oregon State, and California all come to Eugene, and the conference road games are UCLA, Washington, Stanford, and Arizona. If Oregon handles its business at home, the Rose Bowl awaits.

3.) California - Is this the year the Golden Bears FINALLY get over the hump and win the Pac-10? Possibly, but it's going to take some work. The main issue is the quarterback position. Coach Jeff Tedford is great at developing QBs, but hasn't been able to get Kevin Riley to an elite level...yet. If Riley is as good as advertised this season, Cal will score points, tons and tons of points. RB Jahvid Best may be the most explosive player in the country. If he gets a hole, he's probably going to score. His combination of quickness and agility is second to none. True story: I used to work with a guy who went to Tennessee. He flew out to Berkeley for the Tennessee-Cal game in 2007 and nicknamed Best 'Dammit' because every time Best got the ball, my friend would say to himself, "dammit" as Best was ripping off another gain. That really happened. The wide receivers weren't up to standard at Cal last year, so look for the group of Verran Tucker, Nyan Boateng, and Michael Calvin to compensate for that this year. Calvin, in particular, could be special, but he must first show that he is fully recovered from last year's knee injury that caused him to miss most of the season. The offensive line returns only two starters and their play will be pivotal to Cal's improvement. The defensive line is outstanding. Returning all three starters to their 3-4 alignment, DEs Tyson Alualu and Cameron Jordan are disruptive and have terrific motors. LBs Eddie Young and Mychal Kendricks should both have tremendous seasons tackles-wise, and Devin Bishop provides great depth to the linebacking corps. The secondary is led by All-America candidate CB Syd'Quan Thompson, a Pac-10 name of the year nominee. Thompson will be partnered with Darian Hagan on the other side, who is no slouch himself. Safeties Marcus Ezeff and Brett Johnson are returning starters as well, give Cal one of the best defensive backfields in the conference. I would have put the Bears higher if not for their schedule. A road game at Oregon followed by a home game against USC will define the Bears' season. Season-ending road trips to Stanford and Washington could prove to be tricky, as well.

4.) Oregon State - Keep giving Mike Riley lemons and he'll continue to make lemonade. In what was supposed to be a rebuilding year, Riley led his team to a 9-win season and showcased freshman RB Jacquizz Rodgers. Rodgers, in addition to his brother James, will lead the Beaver offense this season in a number of ways. Catching, running, and returning the ball, the Rodgers brothers are tremendous. Expect big things out of them this year, especially Jacquizz. QB Lyle Moevao started last season, but was shaky at times, so expect him to once again be pressured by backup Sean Canfield, who also has starting experience. Neither has to be great, but they must be competent in order for the Oregon State offense to really thrive. At wideout, the Beavers are starting over, but have some talent in place in WRs Darrell Catchings and Casey Kjos, as well as the aforementioned James Rodgers. The offensive line is very experienced and very good, which bodes well for an offense that is looking to improve upon the 30.5 ppg they scored in 2008. On defense, the Beavers have a lot of work to do. Three starters are gone from the defensive line, and all of the secondary is new. LBs Keaton Kristick and Keith Pankey will need to keep things in order while the new guys develop. The line has a couple of good prospects in DE Kevin Frahm and DT Stephen Paea, but consistency and depth could be an issue. The defensive backfield is inexperienced, but Pac-10 name of the year nominee Suaesi Tuimaunei should play well at safety after seeing time as a backup in 2008. Ditto Tim Clark at cornerback. The schedule is a big problem for the Beavers. Even if they're better than last year, road games at Cal, Oregon, and USC may not show it. Expect the team to grow some this year and then challenge for Pac-10 supremacy in 2010.

5.) Stanford - Being an Indianapolis Colts fan, I know that Jim Harbaugh can engineer a miracle or two. His first miracle was beating USC in 2007, the greatest upset in college football history. His next miracle will be getting the Cardinal to a bowl game this season. There's a long road to hoe, but I'm confident Harbaugh will get his team to the postseason. It all starts with redshirt freshman QB Andrew Luck. A remarkably talented player, Luck beat out incumbent starter Tavita Pritchard for the job. Harbaugh says that Luck is going to be a star, and I have no reason not to believe him. His progression throughout the year will be key to Stanford's bowl hopes. RB Toby Gerhart is the best white running back in college football after amassing over 1,000 yards and 15 TDs last season. He is a north-south runner who likes contact and will break many a tackle. The wide receivers are an intriguing bunch. Leading receivers Doug Baldwin and Ryan Whalen return, but sophomore Chris Owusu could really turn heads this fall. Juco star Jamal Rashad-Patterson adds depth to a solid group. Defensively, Stanford should improve with 7 starters returning a unit that was better in 2008 than the numbers indicated. NT Ekom Udofia is a beast and will be fabulous against the run this year. DEs Tom Keiser and Erik Lorig will provide the pressure to complement Udofia. LB Clinton Snyder is a returning starter who should lead the linebackers to a fine season. The secondary is headlined by FS Bo McNally, but also features depth at cornerback. This is a good unit that could surprise people this year. The schedule isn't bad for Stanford. Road trips to USC and Oregon State will be tough, but Oregon and Cal both come to Palo Alto. An upset in one of those games is crucial to the Cardinal's chances of dancing in the postseason.

6.) Arizona State - After finishing a disappointing 5-7 in 2008, the Sun Devils hope to get back to their 10-3 form of 2007. Gone is QB Rudy Carpenter, but Danny Sullivan has seen a decent amount of action over the past few years and should be ready to take over the reins. The ASU running game was awful last year and probably won't be much better this year. The offensive line only returns two starters and RB Dmitri Nance is far from a star. Unless backup Ryan Bass can produce, there is not much to like about the Sun Devil ground attack. WRs Chris McGaha and Kyle Williams are solid targets, but neither is a gamebreaker. Look for freshman A.J. Pickens to challenge for playing time. Arizona State will rely on its defense to keep them in games, and it should be up to the task. DE Dexter Davis and DT Lawrence Guy are talented and experienced, and should lead the way for the entire defense. LBs Travis Goethel and Mike Nixon produced a load of tackles in 2008 and should do so again this year. The secondary features two returning starters at cornerback in Omar Bolden and Terrell Carr. Safety Ryan McFoy is a new starter, but has seen plenty of time in a backup role. Arizona State has a so-so schedule. Road games at Oregon and Stanford will be tough, but home dates with USC and California provide a glimmer of hope that a road trip wouldn't.

7.) UCLA - Coach Rick Neuheisel continues to build up his alma mater, but it will be a year or two before the full rewards can be reaped. QB Kevin Prince is the future, but is also now the present. He has a big time arm and will get ample opportunity to show it off. His go-to receiver will be Terrence Austin, a dependable receiver who has good hands but not an abundance of speed. The running back situation is somewhat murky, but RB Christian Ramirez should be the starter. He's a big, physical runner and could produce if given enough carries. The big problem for the offense is the train wreck of an offensive line. True freshmen are expected to challenge for starting gigs because of the lack of talent available. Prince may be in danger if this unit doesn't improve its performance from a year ago. On defense, there is work to be done. DE Korey Bosworth is steady, but not spectacular. DT Brian Price is very good, but needs help if the unit is going to improve. LBs Reggie Carter and Kyle Bosworth are good hands to have around any program due to their toughness and production. However, freshman Akeem Ayers is special and may end up being the star of the linebacking corps before 2009 is over. The secondary is led by CB Alterraun Verner and S Rahim Moore. This is a talented group that will easily be the best facet of the Bruin defense. The schedule gives UCLA a fighting chance to make a bowl. They must win on the road at Arizona and Washington State to keep hope alive, but maybe a home upset of California or Arizona State could help things out.

8.) Arizona - Coach Mike Stoops finally made a bowl game last year and is looking to repeat the feat. He'll have to do so without QB Willie Tuitama, who set all kinds of school records. In Tuitama's place steps Matt Scott, a sophomore with mobility and a decent arm. If he's not productive, Michigan State transfer Nick Foles could get a look. RBs Nic Grigsby and Keola Antolin, a Pac-10 name of the year nominee, both had their moments of greatness last season. Expect both to get carries this year as the Wildcats incorporate more of a running attack to their offense until the passing game gets going. WRs Terrell Turner and Delashaun Dean are good targets who should build on last season's glimpses of ability. However, TE Rob Gronkowski is the go-to receiver for now. The offensive line only returns 2 starters and needs to develop in a hurry to protect the new quarterback. On defense, 7 starters return to a group that needs to hold up its end of the deal while the offense gets squared away. DEs Brooks Reed and Ricky Elmore are a talented duo and will wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks. LB Xavier Kelley and Sterling Lewis are returning starters, but Pac-10 name of the year nominee Vuna Tuihalamaka should contribute after serving as a backup last season. The secondary is led by CB Devin Ross, who could make the All-Pac-10 team this season. Safety Cam Nelson also returns to a good group of players that will cover up a lot of the weaknesses on defense. Arizona plays at Cal, USC, and Oregon State, all probably losses. Home games against Oregon, UCLA, and Stanford will decide if the Wildcats go bowling once again in 2009.

9.) Washington - New head coach Steve Sarkisian has quite the task ahead of him. Former coach Tyrone Willingham didn't produce very many wins and didn't recruit very good players, either. QB Jake Locker is a stud, though, and will be the centerpiece of Sarkisian's offense. Freshman Chris Polk will get the nod at running back. He's talented, but will make some mistakes behind a still-improving (read: bad) offensive line. WRs Jermaine Kearse and D'Andre Goodwin provide Locker with good targets, and the passing game will be light years ahead of the running game this season. On defense, 7 starters return to a unit that was awful last year. Sarkisian brought with him former USC defensive coordinator Nick Holt, so expect some improvement quickly. DE Daniel Te'o-Nesheim is the sackmaster of the defense and will be applying pressure all season long. LBs Donald Butler and Mason Foster are adequate players who should make all of the sure tackles this year. CB Quinton Richardson (no, not the NBA player who was traded four times this offseason) is the only returning starter in the secondary, but S Nate Williams has significant experience and CB Matt Mosley should be solid. The Huskies must play their 9 conference games, Notre Dame, LSU, and Idaho. Hmm. Well, at least they'll beat Idaho and (hopefully) Washington State at home.

10.) Washington State - The Cougars were bad last year. Not as bad as their neighbors to the west, Washington; but very, very bad. Coach Paul Wulff has a tricky no-huddle attack, so we'll chalk last season's impotence up to being unfamiliar with his system. He was very successful with it at Eastern Washington before getting his new job, so we'll see what happens this year. QB Marshall Lobbestael needs to stay healthy for the Cougs to have a fighting chance. He's a talented player and should be able to put up some numbers in Wulff's system if given the chance. RB Dwight Tardy is a returning starter and should be solid. He won't break many plays open, but he'll get 4 yards per carry. He'll be challenged by Cal transfer James Montgomery who could take over by game three if his production can match his talent. WRs Jeshua Anderson and Jared Karstetter have some ability but must be consistent for the WSU air attack to really thrive. Dropped balls could be an issue. The offensive line was awful last year and only returns two starters this year. That could be a good thing or a bad thing, depending on how you look at it. I say it's a good thing. Defensively, Washington State couldn't stop the run in 2008. Their defensive line was atrocious and can't be any worse this year, but will need to be day-and-night different to approach mediocre. LB Louis Bland is a very good player and should be able to lead the new starters, Andy Mattingly and Alex Hoffman-Ellis, until they get their feet wet. The secondary is solid, led by safeties Xavier Hicks and Pac-10 name of the year nominee Chima Nwachukwu. The Cougars' schedule sucks because they play Hawaii but do so at home. Would you rather be in Washington or Hawaii? Yeah, I thought so. Well, at least the home game against SMU should be winnable.

Disappointing Team: California

Surprise Team: Stanford

Top Players: S Taylor Mays, USC; RB Jahvid Best, California; QB Jeremiah Masoli, Oregon; RB Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State; CB Syd'Quan Thompson, California

Players to Keep An Eye On: RB LeGarrette Blount, Oregon; WR Damian Williams, USC; WR Michael Calvin, California; QB Kevin Prince, UCLA; QB Andrew Luck, Stanford

Key Games: California at Oregon, September 26th; USC at California, October 3rd; USC at Oregon, October 31st; California at Stanford, November 21st; Oregon State at Oregon, December 3rd

Coolest Jerseys: Need you even ask? Oregon Ducks

~~ Lank