The National League Wild Card: Who Wants It?

Last week, my roommate asked me who was going to win the National League Wild Card race. I thought for a minute and then said, "the Colorado Rockies." Then I thought a minute more and said, "nah, give me the Giants." Finally, exasperated, I said, "no, I'm gonna go with the Rockies because the Giants can't score and losing all of those 2-1 games will come back to bite them later."

Here we are a little later in the season, and I'm still not quite sure who's going to win it.

As of right now, the Rockies hold a slight lead, but there are roughly 20 games left in the season, and a cold streak at the wrong time could screw things up. They recently had to shut down closer Huston Street for a little while because of an injury to his biceps. Considering he has 33 saves and a sub-3.00 ERA, that's not the type of thing you want to happen at such a crucial time in the season. He's expected back soon, but the Rockies need to hold down the fort until he returns. Starting pitchers Ubaldo Jimenez and Jason Marquis have been great for Colorado this season, but any slip-ups from them, and all of a sudden a 3.5-game lead turns into a 1-game lead.

On the other hand, San Francisco has been unable to find any offense recently, which is about how things have gone all season. The Giants feature one of the best rotations in baseball with Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Barry Zito, but as good as those guys are, they can't win unless they're given run support. Brad Penny, recently acquired from Boston, has been great in his two starts with San Fran, but he can't do anything for the offense. The Giants are 19-20 in one-run games which goes to show that even when their pitching is great, it doesn't guarantee a win. Such problems have hindered Los Gigantes all season long, and unless they get on a hot streak hitting-wise in September, they'll be enjoying the postseason from the comfort of their own homes. Which is a shame considering a postseason series would be imminently winnable for them should they line up Lincecum, Cain, and Zito against any offense in the league. You've gotta get to the postseason before you can win in the postseason, however, and I just don't see San Francisco getting up the hill.

Lurking relatively far behind are the Florida Marlins and the Atlanta Braves. I only include them in this argument because the numbers require me to, but they're not really threats. Both have been up-and-down all season, and look unable to put together a winning streak that would put a considerable dent in the Rockies' lead. The Marlins are a team loaded with young talent (especially on the mound), but lack the maturity to go on a run in September. The Braves feature a terrific rotation (led by the unrookie-like rookie Tommy Hanson), but cannot put runs across the board often enough to contend. Maybe these teams will challenge in 2010, but not this year.

So, getting back to the original argument, Rockies or Giants? I'm sticking with the Rockies because as we all know, we're getting closer and closer to Rocktober, but don't be surprised if the Giants make the next few weeks very uncomfortable for them. That was quite the diplomatic answer, wasn't it? What's wrong with me?

Screw it; go Rockies.

~~ Lank