Can Cal Get Over the Hump?

This weekend's game at Oregon (3:30, ABC regional) will provide a telling story of this year's California Golden Bears squad. Year after year, we get jazzed up about Cal (ok, maybe it's just me), and year after year, they finish 9-3 or 8-4 and a game away from making the Rose Bowl. Cal hasn't made it to Pasadena since 1958 (technically, January 1st, 1959), and would like nothing more than to exorcise that demon this year. With USC losing to Washington last week, traveling to Berkeley next week, and looking vulnerable for the first time in a while, it's not unreasonable to think that the Golden Bears may have their best shot at unseating the Trojans as Pac-10 champions this season.

Wait, I'm pretty sure this sounds familiar. What is it they say about insanity, it's "trying the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result"? Yeah, this is kinda like that.

I really do feel as if the Bears can get it done this year, though. What looked like a very tough game at Oregon this weekend now looks slightly less so. The Ducks are coming off a three-game stretch in which they've looked...well, disoriented. Despite winning the last two against formidable foes (Purdue and Utah), nobody is comfortable in Eugene right now. QB Jeremiah Masoli looks nothing like the guy who led them down the stretch last year, and new coach Chip Kelly, last year's offensive coordinator, has yet to get his team to play at a high level. If the Ducks are going to upset Cal on Saturday, it's going to take a performance much better than anything they've given this year to do so.

Which brings me back to California. As crazy as it sounds, they don't need their "A game" to win this weekend. Oregon has looked confused on offense and has given up big plays on defense, so simply minimizing turnovers and not giving up any big plays should be enough to give the Bears the victory. That, and giving the ball to the best running back in the country, Jahvid Best, over and over and over again. And then some more. The Cal defense has been stifling this year (3rd quarter against Minnesota notwithstanding), and should befuddle Oregon as well. If the Bears play solid ball and get to 4-0, then they can turn their full attention to the elephant in the Pac-10 room.

USC.

Pete Carroll will have his boys ready to play every game for the rest of this season after an embarrassing performance against Washington (no 3rd or 4th down conversions? Really? It's Washington, for crying out loud); however, there is the possibility that Cal is just better. QB Matt Barkley will only be playing in his 4th game, on the road, against the Bears. Can he be trusted to make plays? USC's biggest strength, its offensive line, will not be as dominant as usual against a terrific Cal front seven. DL Tyson Alualu and LB Mychal Kendricks lead a terrific unit. Cal has every bit the skill position players that USC does, and possibly have a better receiving corps. Damian Williams does his thing for the Trojans, but that's it. WRs Jeremy Ross, Verran Tucker, and Marvin Jones all make plays for the Bears and should test the vaunted USC secondary.

As long as they don't stub their toe in Eugene this weekend while looking ahead to next week, the Bears should be 4-0 and lying in wait for USC in Berkeley next Saturday night. It's certain to be a competitive game played at the highest of athletic levels, but based on what I've seen so far, I give the edge to Cal. Of course, it would be so Cal-ish of the Bears to beat USC and then flame out against Arizona or Oregon State, but I have the feeling that if they get over the USC "hump" you'll see a more focused and loose Bears team for the rest of the year. Which spells trouble for the rest of the Pac-10. Heck, they might even end up in Pasadena for the whole ball of wax (the BCS Championship Game is played at the Rose Bowl this year).

See, that's the problem with trying to trust the Golden Bears; you peg them to go to southern California for the Rose Bowl...and they end up in southern-er California for the Holiday Bowl. Could this year be different?

~~ Lank