One Loss? No Biggie

As with most years in college football, 2009 has brought us losses by some highly-ranked teams relatively early in the season. Several teams are only halfway through their season, yet they already have a (number)-1 record. It is not uncommon for a one-loss team to find their way to the national title game (see: 2008 Florida, 2006 Florida, 2008 Oklahoma, and 2007 Ohio State), so in order to predict who is going to meet the SEC Champion in Pasadena in January, we need to figure out the chances of the one-loss teams going on a run. I don't want to curse any of the undefeated teams by projecting their chances of getting in after a hypothetical loss, so I won't include them right now. But if you guys like the recap of the situation, I'll be more than happy to update it periodically throughout the remainder of the season. Now, onto the business...

(teams listed in order of the most recent Skip To My Lank Top 25)

USC - Everyone's favorite one-loss team come December, the Trojans have a history of losing early games in which they're favored, and then coming on like gangbusters in November before ultimately coming up just shy of the championship game. Will that happen this year? Unlikely. Because their loss occurred so early (even by their standards), they've been able to climb their way back the polls already (they're the highest-ranked one-loss team in the BCS Standings as of this writing). With remaining games against Oregon, Oregon State, Arizona State, and Arizona (combined 7 losses), their schedule strength will remain strong and the computers will come around to love them, too. As long as they don't drop another game the rest of the way, they'll be the highest-ranked one-loss team at the end of the year.

Oregon - The Ducks have responded impressively to their opening game disaster against Boise State. Winners of 5 straight games, Oregon is the only remaining undefeated team in the Pac-10. Should they keep the streak alive (and beat USC along the way, obviously), they will be in the driver's seat of one-loss teams. An undefeated Pac-10 record and 11-game winning streak would be too hard to ignore? Is it likely? No. Road games at Stanford and Arizona, in addition the home date with USC, will prove too tough for the Ducks to overcome. A return trip to the Holiday Bowl will be a nice consolation gift, though.

Georgia Tech - I'm gonna be honest; I have no idea what to do with the Jackets. On one hand, it's unlikely anyone is going to stop their triple-option offense any time soon. Miami stoned them, but that only came after the Hurricanes got time off to prepare. On the other hand, QB Josh Nesbitt doesn't scare anyone as a passer (he completed ONE pass in the win over Virginia Tech. No, really, one.) If the running game struggles unexpectedly, there could be an issue. However, the remaining schedule is at Virginia, at Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, at Duke, and Georgia. If the Yellow Jackets beat the Bulldogs, they could certainly make things interesting. They'd need more losses from the teams ahead of them, though, due to the lackluster play of the ACC in general.

Miami - Hi, Miami; good to see you here again. Unfortunately, I still don't know what to make of you. The Hurricanes looked terrific against Georgia Tech, but looked awful against Virginia Tech. Their remaining schedule is super light, but one game in which they don't show up mentally seems possible. They also have the ACC stigma (much like GT), but their brand name could trump that, as could their wins over Oklahoma and Georgia Tech. Keep an eye on these guys.

Oklahoma State - I love Mike Gundy. In light of the Dez Bryant situation, Kendall Hunter's injuries, and a seemingly nervous Zac Robinson, he's got the Cowboys sitting pretty with only one (out of conference) loss. They still have to play Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma, but only the Oklahoma game is on the road. It'd be hard to overlook a one-loss team from the Big 12 that went through the conference unscathed, but due to a poor ranking currently, they'll need some help to move up. Let's say this: keep winning, and we'll talk.

Penn State - They've played no one in the non-conference schedule, they lost to the one good team they played (Iowa), and they're not likely to beat Michigan, Ohio State, and Michigan State, all of whom remain on their schedule. Maybe they can steal a Rose Bowl bid, but they have virtually no shot of making the Big One. If all chaos breaks loose, they can pull a 2007 Ohio State and backdoor their way into the show. But only then.

LSU - The Tigers are only on here because they have one loss. Remaining games against Alabama, Ole Miss, and Arkansas mean it's unlikely that LSU will finish with only one loss. Sure, if they win out (including the SEC Title game), they'll be in Pasadena for the whole ball of wax. But, they won't win out. Done and done.

West Virginia - The Mountaineers only have one loss, but they're not going to finish that way. Road games against South Florida, Cincinnati, and Rutgers, in addition to a home rivalry game against Pittsburgh will make sure of that. A good season would probably be 9-3, but anything more than that seems unrealistic.

Kansas - Seriously, Jayhawks? You lost to Colorado? Goodness. You're in trouble for that, but if you win out, that will mean wins over Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, and Nebraska. And then one of the better South teams in the Big 12 Title game. Take care of all that and I'll let you into the group with all the cool kids. Any loss, however, and you're back to the little boys' table. Colorado? Really?

South Florida - Remaining games against Pittsburgh, West Virginia, and Miami mean that there are opportunities to right the ship (you know, the big ship that sits in their stadium in Tampa). However, getting a one-loss Big East team into the Big Show is going to take some effort in front of them. They won't get any benefit of any doubt, but if they are one of two teams remaining with one-loss at the end of the season, they could sneak in with some signature wins on their resume. Basically, the Bulls aren't a threat; I hope no USF fans have booked tickets to Southern California in January. The good news is that it'll be just as warm in Tampa as LA.

Those are the facts, people. The cold, hard truth about one-loss teams and their chances of getting into the BCS National Championship Game. Don't blame me, blame your favorite team for not winning every single game and leaving nothing up to chance. Best of luck to you and yours, I'll see you again in a few weeks.

~~ Lank