One Loss? No Biggie

As with most years in college football, 2009 has brought us losses by some highly-ranked teams relatively early in the season. Several teams are only halfway through their season, yet they already have a (number)-1 record. It is not uncommon for a one-loss team to find their way to the national title game (see: 2008 Florida, 2006 Florida, 2008 Oklahoma, and 2007 Ohio State), so in order to predict who is going to meet the SEC Champion in Pasadena in January, we need to figure out the chances of the one-loss teams going on a run. I don't want to curse any of the undefeated teams by projecting their chances of getting in after a hypothetical loss, so I won't include them right now. But if you guys like the recap of the situation, I'll be more than happy to update it periodically throughout the remainder of the season. Now, onto the business...

(teams listed in order of the most recent Skip To My Lank Top 25)

USC - Everyone's favorite one-loss team come December, the Trojans have a history of losing early games in which they're favored, and then coming on like gangbusters in November before ultimately coming up just shy of the championship game. Will that happen this year? Unlikely. Because their loss occurred so early (even by their standards), they've been able to climb their way back the polls already (they're the highest-ranked one-loss team in the BCS Standings as of this writing). With remaining games against Oregon, Oregon State, Arizona State, and Arizona (combined 7 losses), their schedule strength will remain strong and the computers will come around to love them, too. As long as they don't drop another game the rest of the way, they'll be the highest-ranked one-loss team at the end of the year.

Oregon - The Ducks have responded impressively to their opening game disaster against Boise State. Winners of 5 straight games, Oregon is the only remaining undefeated team in the Pac-10. Should they keep the streak alive (and beat USC along the way, obviously), they will be in the driver's seat of one-loss teams. An undefeated Pac-10 record and 11-game winning streak would be too hard to ignore? Is it likely? No. Road games at Stanford and Arizona, in addition the home date with USC, will prove too tough for the Ducks to overcome. A return trip to the Holiday Bowl will be a nice consolation gift, though.

Georgia Tech - I'm gonna be honest; I have no idea what to do with the Jackets. On one hand, it's unlikely anyone is going to stop their triple-option offense any time soon. Miami stoned them, but that only came after the Hurricanes got time off to prepare. On the other hand, QB Josh Nesbitt doesn't scare anyone as a passer (he completed ONE pass in the win over Virginia Tech. No, really, one.) If the running game struggles unexpectedly, there could be an issue. However, the remaining schedule is at Virginia, at Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, at Duke, and Georgia. If the Yellow Jackets beat the Bulldogs, they could certainly make things interesting. They'd need more losses from the teams ahead of them, though, due to the lackluster play of the ACC in general.

Miami - Hi, Miami; good to see you here again. Unfortunately, I still don't know what to make of you. The Hurricanes looked terrific against Georgia Tech, but looked awful against Virginia Tech. Their remaining schedule is super light, but one game in which they don't show up mentally seems possible. They also have the ACC stigma (much like GT), but their brand name could trump that, as could their wins over Oklahoma and Georgia Tech. Keep an eye on these guys.

Oklahoma State - I love Mike Gundy. In light of the Dez Bryant situation, Kendall Hunter's injuries, and a seemingly nervous Zac Robinson, he's got the Cowboys sitting pretty with only one (out of conference) loss. They still have to play Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma, but only the Oklahoma game is on the road. It'd be hard to overlook a one-loss team from the Big 12 that went through the conference unscathed, but due to a poor ranking currently, they'll need some help to move up. Let's say this: keep winning, and we'll talk.

Penn State - They've played no one in the non-conference schedule, they lost to the one good team they played (Iowa), and they're not likely to beat Michigan, Ohio State, and Michigan State, all of whom remain on their schedule. Maybe they can steal a Rose Bowl bid, but they have virtually no shot of making the Big One. If all chaos breaks loose, they can pull a 2007 Ohio State and backdoor their way into the show. But only then.

LSU - The Tigers are only on here because they have one loss. Remaining games against Alabama, Ole Miss, and Arkansas mean it's unlikely that LSU will finish with only one loss. Sure, if they win out (including the SEC Title game), they'll be in Pasadena for the whole ball of wax. But, they won't win out. Done and done.

West Virginia - The Mountaineers only have one loss, but they're not going to finish that way. Road games against South Florida, Cincinnati, and Rutgers, in addition to a home rivalry game against Pittsburgh will make sure of that. A good season would probably be 9-3, but anything more than that seems unrealistic.

Kansas - Seriously, Jayhawks? You lost to Colorado? Goodness. You're in trouble for that, but if you win out, that will mean wins over Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, and Nebraska. And then one of the better South teams in the Big 12 Title game. Take care of all that and I'll let you into the group with all the cool kids. Any loss, however, and you're back to the little boys' table. Colorado? Really?

South Florida - Remaining games against Pittsburgh, West Virginia, and Miami mean that there are opportunities to right the ship (you know, the big ship that sits in their stadium in Tampa). However, getting a one-loss Big East team into the Big Show is going to take some effort in front of them. They won't get any benefit of any doubt, but if they are one of two teams remaining with one-loss at the end of the season, they could sneak in with some signature wins on their resume. Basically, the Bulls aren't a threat; I hope no USF fans have booked tickets to Southern California in January. The good news is that it'll be just as warm in Tampa as LA.

Those are the facts, people. The cold, hard truth about one-loss teams and their chances of getting into the BCS National Championship Game. Don't blame me, blame your favorite team for not winning every single game and leaving nothing up to chance. Best of luck to you and yours, I'll see you again in a few weeks.

~~ Lank

My (Updated) Top 25 Poll

Well, this is getting interesting. After several Top 10 teams were upended this week, there is a lot of confusion as to who should be ranked where. This is just one man's opinion...but at least it's one man who actually watches the games.

1.) Florida

2.) Alabama

(this space shall remain empty to show the distance between the Tide and Gators and everyone else).

3.) Texas

4.) Iowa

5.) Cincinnati

6.) TCU

7.) USC

8.) Boise State

9.) Oregon

10.) Georgia Tech

11.) Virginia Tech

12.) Miami

13.) Oklahoma State

14.) Ohio State

15.) Penn State

16.) LSU

17.) BYU

18.) Notre Dame

19.) Oklahoma

20.) Houston

21.) Utah

22.) West Virginia

23.) Wisconsin

24.) Kansas

25.) South Florida

It goes to show you how bad some of these supposed "top teams" are that I have teams ranked that lost to Colorado, UTEP, and Florida State in my Top 25. However, there just isn't much left to throw into the mix. The final 10 spots are usually a toss-up anyway (4-2 teams look a lot alike after a while), so don't be offended if your team is 20th; it could easily be 17th or 25th. We'll see how things play out the rest of the year, but right now, it's clear that there are two really good teams and some others that are trying to get a chance to play them in the title game. Who's gonna step up and become a great team? Not sure, but it's gonna be fun to find out.

~~ Lank

Dancing with the Stars Recap: Week 4

Once again, there was a mild surprise in this week's elimination. Michael Irvin, the NFL Hall of Famer, had the low scores of the week and seemed destined to be voted off this week. However, early in the results show, host Tom Bergeron let us know that Michael was safe. Who, then, would be eliminated? My immediate guess was UFC fighter Chuck Liddell, who has been entertaining, but stiff and rigid, throughout the competition. Liddell was announced to be in the bottom two of the voting along with...surprise...Aaron Carter. Yes, the guy who had a score of 27 (out of 30) just two weeks ago is now battling to fend off elimination. His lame act of crying, complaining, and seeming not to have an ounce of fun seems to be catching up with him. I'm sure he'll make it another round or two due to the fact that he's not the worst dancer on the show, but I don't expect him to make it to the final six. So, what's up with the remaining couples? Glad you asked:

Mya and Dmitry Chaplin - Another week, another blistering performance. Dancing a lambada, these two put up two 10s on the board, as well as an 8 from crotchety judge Len Goodman. The total of 28 was tied for the highest score this week, and their dances continue to be among the most watchable of the season. They are constantly in synch incorporate smooth moves into every routine. If they get voted off at any point, it won't be because of a poor effort on the dance floor, that's for sure.

Aaron Carter and Karina Smirnoff - Like I said earlier, this guy is flaming out (yes, I used that phrase on purpose) and may not last very much longer. The fans seem to be growing tired of his attitude and lack of enjoyment in the competition. He annoys me and I'm really hoping he'll get voted off this week although I know better. Grow up, Aaron.

Natalie Coughlin and Alec Mazo - This is a sneaky good duo. Natalie has put her initial nerves behind her and has put together some great dances lately. Her bolero with Alec wasn't showstopping, but it certainly was consistent and had no major flaws. Her trio of 8s were a score indicative of the performance. Nothing flashy, but getting the job done at a high level. She seems to be a crowd favorite as well (duh, she's won a bunch of gold medals for Uncle Sam; who doesn't respect that?), so I expect her to hang around awhile.

Mark Dacascos and Lacey Schwimmer - I'm still not a fan of his, but I have to admit that buddy did his thing this week. Dancing the country two-step, he seemed more relaxed and actually put together a solid performance. That, and his beautiful young daughter told him that she loved him in one of the pre-dance video snippets. I'm a sucker for that kind of stuff, people. Sue me. Anyway, after Michael gets eliminated this week (predicted alert!!), I believe Mark will be the next to go. And rightfully so.

Melissa Joan Hart and Mark Ballas - I'm happy for Melissa, I really am. She's still not the best dancer out there, but she's progressing and has gotten better every week. The pinnacle of her progress occurred this week when she and Mark absolutely killed the Charleston. She put on a remarkable performance and got two well-deserved 9s and a 10 as her scores. The fans love her (myself included) and as long as she continues to get better and better on the floor, she will be around awhile. Do your thing, girl.

Michael Irvin and Anna Demidova - Mike, I love you, dude. You're entertaining and have a great personality on the dance floor, but the dancing technique just isn't there. You're too stiff, you don't have any fluidity to your movements at all, and you seem entirely too reliant on Anna to compensate for your shortcomings. Sadly, I think we've reached the end of the road for you in the coming week, but I have said that before...

Joanna Krupa and Derek Hough - Remember last week, when I said that these two were going to set the floor on fire with their lambada? Yeah, it just about happened. Though no tangible flames were present (except for Aaron Carter), the dance was terrific and really set the tone for the evening. These two have great chemistry and better clear their schedules for the next few weeks; they're going to be busy dancing all the way to the end.

Kelly Osbourne and Louis van Amstel - Don't look now, but Kelly's getting good. She and Louis did the Charleston this week, and I must admit that I was surprised by how well she performed. Her confidence seems to be there and her motions are surprisingly fluid. Everybody likes and underdog, and as long as she can continue to maintain solid showings (like this week's 23), the fan votes will keep pouring in.

Donny Osmond and Kym Johnson - After Donny's dance this week, I texted Baseball Mom and said, "Unbelievable. That guy is just a pro." He danced the Charleston with Kym and provided a high-energy routine that belied his 51 year age. He continues to show up week in and week out with strong performances that show you why the guy has been revered in the business for so many years. He's older than everyone on the show, yet he consistently outshines them all (except for Mya, of course). Nice work, Donny; Baseball Mom and I continue to be amazed (well, I'm amazed, she's just smitten).

Louie Vito and Chelsie Hightower - My favorite couple didn't have a very good week. They attempted to do the country two-step, but neither of them seemed very comfortable doing it. Louie just kinda stood around while Chelsie looked incredible dancing around him. The judges weren't impressed, and Louie ended up with a score of 16, the same as Michael Irvin. When your scores are in Michael range, that's not the best of signs. Luckily, the fans pushed him through to next week and we'll see if he can rebound...and keep Chelsie on the show for another week. Love her.

~~ Lank

Friday Night Picks: October 16th

California (-4) at UCLA

Arkansas (+24) at Florida

Minnesota (+16) at Penn State

Indiana (+3) vs. Illinois

Kansas (-9) at Colorado

Green Bay (-11.5) vs. Detroit

Pittsburgh (-13.5) vs. Cleveland

Carolina (-3.5) at Tampa Bay

Seattle (-3) vs. Arizona

New York Jets (-9.5) vs. Buffalo

~~ Lank

The Weekend That Was: October 10th

LSU-Florida was a snoozefest - Seriously, was there anyone out there not wearing purple and gold (or maybe even those wearing purple and gold) who thought LSU would cross the goal line? Ever? I mean, that game could've gone two weeks and Jordan Jefferson wouldn't have gotten the Tigers anywhere near a touchdown. Despite a conservative Florida gameplan, a couple of Gator turnovers, and a home crowd that was encouraging them on with everything they had, LSU's offense looked downright inept. You know, just like it has the rest of the season. Urban Meyer, I've always admired your work, but this conservative style sucks. I know your receivers are terrible and your defense is next-level good. But would it kill you to throw more than 20 yards down the field more than once a game? Just for fun? Like I said, it's not like LSU was ever going to score, so why the need to button it up? Goodness.

Florida State isn't going bowling - As a diehard Seminole fan, it pains me to say this, but here are the facts: They have 4 losses already, and remaining road games against Florida, North Carolina, Clemson, and Wake Forest. Can they win two of those? Sure. But who's to say they can win two of those and hold serve at home, where they haven't beaten a D-1A opponent since November 8, 2008? The offensive is explosive when it doesn't turn the ball over, but the defense gives up big play after big play after big play, and there doesn't seem to be any hope on the way. This is a lost season, and it may only get worse. Damn it all.

Arkansas is fun to watch - Here's the recipe for a fun team to watch: good offense, bad defense. That's it. Well, the Razorbacks check out well in both spots. Their offense is capable of lighting up anyone (except Alabama, it seems), but the defense can't stop me and 10 of my best friends (yes, I have tremendous hands and quickness on the outside, but still). QB Ryan Mallett has been exceptional this year, and I am VERY interested to see how he does against Florida's defense. You know, that defense that refuses to let anyone score. They've given up 2 touchdowns in 60 possessions this season. That's silly.

Jevan Snead sucks - Remember the big stink when Steve Spurrier "accidentally" voted for Snead over Tim Tebow for preseason All-SEC quarterback? Well, it looks even worse now. Snead has been an interception machine this season, showing that it's a lot harder for some guys to play when expectations have been raised. Anyone who thought Ole Miss was a Top 10 team was crazy to begin with, but even I didn't expect them to look this inept. Maybe Arkansas knew what it was doing when it forced out coach Houston Nutt, precipitating his move to the Grove.

The Big Ten race is wide open - Iowa is good, but they're going to lose a few games. Any team that plays everything that close to the vest is bound to get bit at some point (especially with road games at Wisconsin and Michigan State coming up before their trip to Columbus). Ohio State was thoroughly outplayed by Wisconsin, but by virtue of two interception-return TDs and a kickoff return TD, they won by a substantial margin. The aforementioned Badgers are very good, but can't seem to get out of their own way in some games (the Ohio State game obviously, but the Fresno State win was much too close as well). Heck, I haven't even mentioned Penn State, who keeps beating really bad football teams but losing to the only good one they've played (Iowa). I assume the Buckeyes will win the conference due to having superior talent, but I wouldn't bet a dime on it.

Jimmy Clausen, your table is ready - Over the first two years of his career, Clausen got a lot of hate from a lot of people (myself included), and rightfully so. He was erratic and never looked comfortable in the pocket (mainly because his line was atrocious). However, this season he's been a godsend to the Fighting Irish, who are 4-1 thanks to #7's last-minute heroics time and time again. Even in their lone loss to Michigan, Clausen put them in a position to win until the defense allowed the Wolverines to march down the field for the winning touchdown. Clausen's biggest test of the season will come this weekend when the USC Trojans roll into South Bend. The USC defense is good, but not great, and if Clausen really is elite, he'll hang with USC and force Matt Barkley to make a few plays to win. This game is, undoubtedly, the most intriguing of this weekend's matchups...yes, better than Texas-Oklahoma.

Teams that impressed me - Arkansas, Washington, Oregon State, Oregon, Virginia Tech, Duke

Teams that disappointed me - Indiana (really? sigh), Ohio State, Georgia, Northwestern, Kansas (not the offense, though), East Carolina

Games I'm looking forward to this weekend - USC at Notre Dame, Texas vs. Oklahoma, Cincinnati at South Florida (Thursday), Iowa at Wisconsin, Arkansas at Florida, Missouri at Oklahoma State

~~ Lank

Skip's Trip To KGC

Last night I did something out of character. So out of character it has even prompted me to post on the blog which shares my name but not my work. I went to KFC. My first trip since 2006, a fateful day in a Las Vegas mall food court which was only visited due to losing all the money I could stand. Combining my general dislike of the place and love for Bojangles, I would have told you that trip was my last. That was before a little invention called KGC, a new option so healthy and flavorful even a heathen like myself would bow at the altar of the Colonel.

So I pull up to the KFC out on Highway 51 near my girlfriend's place about 7, prime time to devour poultry so tender I'd never think of fast food the same. With a drive thru line 6-deep I decided to venture inside, mistake number one. Posted smack dab next to the register was a sanitation grade of a whopping 88. While I'm not captain clean, I do know the McDonald's average is around 99, so it isn't a good start to turn my opinion of the joint. I proceed to then take in the menu, to learn that the basic grilled chicken bucket dinner is 19.99, which also seems a little steep. I move forward with the sale and choose mac and cheese and potato wedges, keeping my face down as much as I can. Bojangles may never look at me the same again. So, after 21.80 with tax I head over to my girlfriends ready to eat.

Upon opening the bucket, I first take out a plate to verify they actually slammed 10 pieces in there, as it looks like around 6 pieces. It totals to ten, but these pieces can't even be compared to Bojos. Sure, hormone-slammed chickens aren't natural, but a KFC 10 weighs about the same as a Bojos 5. Strike 3 if we count the sanitation and the price. But I'm a giver and I'm hungry, so it's going down.

We prepare our plates, and even though our food had to be sitting an hour, it is all pretty good. The chicken is better than expected and the wedges are damn strong. However, the biscuits are laughable dinner rolls at best, and the mac just one step above hot garbage. I won't hold a grudge though, the feature item and reason for the visit didn't let me down. I'll give the chicken 4/5, sides 2.5/5 and general feelings about the entire thing 1.5/5.
Seriously, just go to bojangles. While good, KFC isn't worth losing your soul and southern spirit.

~~ Skip

Friday Night Picks: October 9th

Georgia (pick) at Tennessee

Minnesota (-4) vs. Purdue

Wisconsin (+14.5) at Ohio State

Michigan (+7.5) at Iowa

Alabama (-6.5) at Ole Miss

Carolina (-3.5) vs. Washington

Dallas (-9) at Kansas City

Minnesota (-11) at St. Louis

Houston (+5) at Arizona

New York Jets (pick) at Miami

~~ Lank